Next week market outlook from 14/11/2022 to 19/11/2022from from

·       In the coming week investors will be watching a spate of economic data, including US retail sales numbers on Wednesday, for more clues on whether the Fed's monetary policy tightening is cooling the economy. On the domestic front, Indian Retail Inflation data (CPI) will be announced on Monday which will be important for the market while most of the quarterly results have almost announced.

·       Expects rally to continue in the domestic equity on optimism that cooler-than-expected US inflation will lead to smaller rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and on China’s move to loosen its Covid Zero policies. On the domestic front, USDINR fell sharply to close 2-month low at below 81 indicated aggressive FIIs buying interest (FIIIs net buyers nearly Rs7k this week). Moreover, strong macro data - October PMI reported 6-month high to above 55, 4-month high September IIP data, stable oil price, impressive quarterly results and strong GST collection, will be positive for the market sentiment. Expect beaten down metal (China to relax zero covid policy stance) and IT stocks (global IT Major Index Nasdaq gained 7% this week) will be big positive for next week

·       The domestic market joined the global run as markets across the world cheered the lower-than-expected US inflation data and this was one of the best week in the stock market history. Indian bourses ended on record supported by strong domestic macro data and blessing by US inflation data which has fallen to significantly lower than estimated level along with core inflation number.

·       Global market witnessed biggest gains (between 3-8% and S&P 500 close to 4000 mark psychological level) in over two years after the US Inflation for October has come in at 7.7% (expectation at 7.9%) against previous month was at 8.2%. Core Inflation fell to 6.3% while expectation was 6.5%. US Dow Jones climbed up over 1300 points or 3.5% and Nasdaq Composite skyrocket by 7% against the previous week close. A slowdown in US inflation could mean the Federal Reserve won’t have to be so aggressive about raising interest rates. Market expect that the US Fed to raise rates again next month but by a smaller margin of one-half percentage point after a series of 0.75 percentage-point increases. US 10-Year (3.80% from 4.2%) and 2-year bond yield declined by 10% on a single day while Dollar Index fell to 4-month low to below low to below 106.

 

Weekly Update (Week on Week)

 

·       A sharp recovery in the rupee and unabated foreign capital inflows further bolstered sentiment. Sensex zoomed  845 points or 1.40% to settle at 61,795 -- surpassing its previous closing peak of 61,765 hit on October 18, 2021. Likewise, the broader Nifty rallied 233 points or 1.3% cent to finish at 18,350. This week, there was rally in PSU Bank, IT and Metal stocks.

·       Banking stocks witnessing major gainers this week led by HDFC twins and PSU Bank. Nifty PSU Bank Index soared by 6% after announced strong Q2 results. PSU Bank Index surged by 28% just one month. Nifty Metal Index gained by 2% on expectation of improve demand after China announced to partially remove covid lock down and US Dollar Index fell to 3-month low. Nifty IT Index advance 2% due to attractive valuation and Global IT Major Index Nasdaq Composite spiked by 7%. However, Nifty Pharma Index slipped 3% due to poor quarterly results announcement. Nifty Auto Index slipped by 2% after auto major Tata Motor reported lower than expected Q2 results

 

Short Term Buy

 

·       Cochin Shipyard, National Aluminium, Adani Ports, HDFC, Bank of India, SAIL, Tata Steel, Zomato, BoB, LTTS, Coforge

 

Long Term Buy

 

·       Axis Bank, Hindalco, LIC India, Infosys, TCS, SBI, Zee Entertainment, Reliance Industries, HAL, Patanjali Foods, Indian Hotel

 

Technical Levels

 

·       Nifty index has formed a Bullish candle on daily and weekly frame and has been forming higher lows from the last six weeks. Now, it has to hold above 18300 zones, for an up move towards 18500 then 18600 zones whereas supports are placed at 18188 and 18088 zones.

·       Bank Nifty has formed a Doji candle on daily frame and a Bullish candle on weekly frame. Now it has to hold above 41840 zones for an up move towards 42500 and 42750 zones whereas supports are placed at 41750 and 41500 zones.

 

Global Market Update

 

·       US, Europe and Asian markets gained between 3-8% this week.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 8% this week to notch its biggest weekly gain since March on optimism that a slower-than-expected US inflation print will lead to smaller rate hikes by US Fed. Moreover, expectation that the China to relax zero covid policy stance will be back in global demand. US Inflation for October has come in at 7.7% (expectation at 7.9%) against previous month was at 8.2%. Core Inflation fell to 6.3% while expectation was 6.5%. Cooler-than-expected US inflation data set the stage for a slowdown in aggressive interest-rate hikes resulted US 10-Year and 2-year bond yield corrected 10% from the peak and Dollar Index fell to 3-month low.

 

Commodity

 

·       Gold surged 5% to 3-month high at $1771/ounce following tweaks to China’s Covid-19 rules, the US inflation print, and weakness in the dollar, and events next week will shape whether gains hold or wither.

·       Brent Crude advance 2% to $96/bbl following China's announcement that it would relax some of its hardline Covid-19 restrictions, including shortening its quarantine requirements for international travelers by two days. Market expectation global demand will improve after China announced to partially lifted covid lockdown.

 

FIIs and DIIs

 

·       FIIs were net buyers Rs6330cr

·       DIIs were net sellers Rs2255cr

 

Results

 

·       Monday – Aarti Industries, Abbott India, Bharat Forge, Biocon, CESC, FDC, Grasim, GM Infra (Airport), Greaves Cotton, HUDCO, Indiabull Housing, IRCTC, IOL Chemical, Kaveri Seed, KNR Construction, LUX Industries, Mazda, Munjal Auto, Mishra Dhatu, NMDC, NBCC, ONGC, Parag Milk, SpiceJet, Sobha, Star Cement, Stovec, Uttam Sugar

·       Tuesday – Rajesh Exports

 

Corporate Action

 

·       Monday – PFC Dividend Rs5, EPL Rs2.15, Compuage Infocom Right issue 8:25 at a premium Rs18

·       Tuesday – Aegis Logistic Dividend Rs2, P&G Rs15, Coal India Rs15, Amaraja Batteries Rs2.90

·       Wednesday -  Motherson Aumi Wiring Bonus 2:5, Computer Age Manage Rs8.50

·       Thursday – Dhanuka Agritech Share Buy-Back, PDC Dividend Rs2.50, Oriental Carbon Rs7.

 

Global Data

 

·       US – Tuesday – Empire Manufacturing, Food, Manufacturing and commodities. Wednesday – MBA Mortgage Application, Retail sales data, Industrial Production Data, NAHB Housing Data. Thursday – Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Data. Friday – Existing Home sales Data

·       Europe – Monday - House Price Data, Economy Survey (UK), Economy Survey (Germany), Economy Survey (France). Tuesday – Whole Price Index (Germany), CPI, Unemployment Rate (France), Payroll, Employment Rate, Jobless Claims (UK). Wednesday – CPI, Retail Sales (UK). Friday – Retail sales, Consumer Confidence (UK)

·       China – Tuesday - Industrial Production, Industrial Production. Wednesday – New Home Sales

·       India – Monday – WPI, CPI, Exports & Import.

Technical Outlook of nifty on 20/08/2013

Nifty tanked and closed below the crucial support of 5475 signalling a weak trend at 5414 level. So today the first resistance for nifty is at 5455-60 level. On downside first support is at 5374-69 level. Next supports are at 5333-28,5310-05,5266-61,5228-22 level.The trend is weak and below 5369 the chance are high for down trend to continue and better avoid longs as long as a strong oen above 5500 or a move above 5532.

Positional Immediate support for NIFTY is 5350
positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5608 5672 5802 5803 5810 5849 5861 5862 5889 .
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5496 : 5563.4 : 5525.7 : 5541.2
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5333.5 : 5266.1 : 5304.9 : 5289.8

Technical outlook of Nifty Next week 19/08/2013 to 23/08/2013

Traders witnessed horror show by market on Friday, it was one of the sharpest fall after almost four years, Nifty remained positive for all starting four days from the lows of 5510 it made a high of 5754.55. But Friday, we witnessed scary fall from the highs of 5716.60 to 5496, loss of 234 points on just a day. Now Nifty has crucial support from it long term rising trend line which comes near 5400 levels. Momentum Oscillator MACD has already given Bearish Convergence and recently moved beneath 0-level on weekly charts in recent past, and Stochastic is moving towards oversold territory, but situation is still scary on monthly charts and it clearly indicates that still we have more to see. On friday Nifty closed below the weekly pivot point 5586.15. Nifty has immediate Resistance at 5526 and then at 5547. Nifty must cross 5570 and stay above 5593 on Closing Basis to continue its Up-move. If Nifty manages to cross and decisively close above 5616, it may go up to 5636 – 5656 - 5685. Further Up-move Levels will be 5708 – 5723 – 5749 - 5766.Nifty has immediate Support at 5497 and then at 5477. If Nifty breaches 5460, it may go down to 5434 – 5420. Nifty will get weak below 5402 and may go down to 5382 – 5362 – 5342 - 5330. Further Down-move Levels will be 5318 – 5298 – 5278 – 5272 – 5240.

CNX IT after posting a high of 8032.25 gave us Doji candle on the same day when it posted this high, which is not at all healthy sign, and even if we look at past fortnightly movement then it is no better, because IT Index remained almost range bound within 300 points of 7700-8000, but importantly it didn’t fall. But now there is signs of exhaustion and we have to accept it. Nifty and CNX IT Index gives clear bearish signal, only we have little hope on Bank Nifty where, we are expecting some support should come at 9400 levels, if this level is not hold then 8800-8500 is not very far ahead. 

Nifty Trend looks to be sideways to Negative and Nifty is trading in Over-Sold Zone. Global Cues are almost Negative. Nifty may continue its Upmove if it manages to HOLD above 5547 on Closing Basis, crosses 5570 and stays above 5593. The Upmove will be up to 5616 – 5636 – 5656 - 5685. On the other hand,  if it HOLDS below 5460, breaches 5434 and trades below 5420, to look for.we are seeing support near 5450 levels, which will be deciding level, Below  it is likely to be dragged down to 5402 – 5382 – 5362 – 5342 - 5330.

Moving Averages

Average	20 Days	50 Days	100 Days	200 Days
SMA	5777	5800	5839	5852
EMA	5719	5798	5826	5776

CMP	5507.85
Nifty Range	5249 to 5766
Pivot Point	5586
Turning Points	5502 - 5593
Positive Above	5579
Negative Below	5437
Bull Turning Point	5650
Bear Turning Point	5366

Factors of Concern/Major Events

1. Domestic and Global News/Cues (Especially from European and U.S. Markets).

2. Status of Rupee versus Dollar. Rupee depreciated to lowest - 62.

3. Impact of NSEL Issue.

 

Technical outlook of nifty on 07/08/2013

The massive sell-off witnessed on the market today, sensex hits 52 week low after the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex crashed 449 points or 2.34% to closing at 18,733 points today. Sensex has tanked 1,569 points in past two weeks from level of 20,302 on July 23. The index had hit 52-week low of 17,251 on September 5, 2012. Bankex also hits 52-week low on worries that continued monetary tightening would drive up bad loans. The rupee touched a record low 61.81 against the dollar in noon deals today.

Nifty reached 5550 as we predicted on sunday, Nifty traded at the low of 5521.80, and finally closed at 5542.25. We have the support at 5500 and expect short covering rally on tomorrow if rupee supports. So the first resistance for nifty is at 5600 level. On downside be alert below 5500 and avoid longs below that level. The trend is weak and below 5450 the nifty is very weak be very alert and avoid bottom fishing .So  below 5500 avoid all longs and long should be taken only if nifty stays strongly above 5640 even for short term.

Positional Immediate support for NIFTY is 5500
positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5787 5835 5860 5862 5865 5872 5884 5914 5920 .
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5587.1  5632 5706.5  5654.5  5670.1
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5497.4  5452.5  5378  5431.1  5415.8

BSE Sensex ends near 300 pts down; Technical View of nifty for 04/07/2013

The market lost it strength further, Sensex closed at 288.06 at 19177.77. The Nifty slips 86.65 points at 5770.90 on weak global cues and sharp rupee depreciation. Profit booking may also be the reason as the Sensex had rallied more than 1000 points from June 27 to July 1.. About 697 shares have advanced, 1502 shares declined, and 136 shares are unchanged. Pharma and FMCG stocks pick up momentum in the last trading hour. Sun Pharma , ITC and Jindal Steel are gainers in the Sensex. Realty Index badly hit today, falling 5 percent. HDIL , Unitech , Orbit Corp, Brigade Enterprises ,Sobha Developer and DLF are down between 4-10 percent. Rupee weakening further to 60.23 (+0.57). FIIs sold 705 crore in cash market while DIIS bought 252 crore, FIIs start selling large so be cautious, huge volatile days are ahead.

Now Bulls caught in trap, Nifty come under the territory of bears, 5690 level looking like a good support, Bears can lead the nifty to  5710 or 5690 even below with help of weakening rupee and global trend. Tomorrow the first resistance for nifty is at 5797-02 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5825-30,5870-73,5892-00,5925-30,5950-55,5970-75,6005-10,6050-55,6090-95 levels. On downside first support is at 5744-40 level. Next supports are at 5717-12,5675-70,5649-45,5623-18,5590-85,5569-65,5536-32,5518-14,5497-92,5477-74,5445-41 level.The trend is in bear side, nifty fell below 5825 is not good for bulls,Now bulls can only breath above 5850.

Positional Support for NIFTY 5730 5705 and positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5825 5840 5850 5860 5875 5930 5940 .

Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5825, 5870, 5886,5900

Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5718, 5674, 5658, 5642