Technical outlook of Nifty Next week 19/08/2013 to 23/08/2013

Traders witnessed horror show by market on Friday, it was one of the sharpest fall after almost four years, Nifty remained positive for all starting four days from the lows of 5510 it made a high of 5754.55. But Friday, we witnessed scary fall from the highs of 5716.60 to 5496, loss of 234 points on just a day. Now Nifty has crucial support from it long term rising trend line which comes near 5400 levels. Momentum Oscillator MACD has already given Bearish Convergence and recently moved beneath 0-level on weekly charts in recent past, and Stochastic is moving towards oversold territory, but situation is still scary on monthly charts and it clearly indicates that still we have more to see. On friday Nifty closed below the weekly pivot point 5586.15. Nifty has immediate Resistance at 5526 and then at 5547. Nifty must cross 5570 and stay above 5593 on Closing Basis to continue its Up-move. If Nifty manages to cross and decisively close above 5616, it may go up to 5636 – 5656 - 5685. Further Up-move Levels will be 5708 – 5723 – 5749 - 5766.Nifty has immediate Support at 5497 and then at 5477. If Nifty breaches 5460, it may go down to 5434 – 5420. Nifty will get weak below 5402 and may go down to 5382 – 5362 – 5342 - 5330. Further Down-move Levels will be 5318 – 5298 – 5278 – 5272 – 5240.

CNX IT after posting a high of 8032.25 gave us Doji candle on the same day when it posted this high, which is not at all healthy sign, and even if we look at past fortnightly movement then it is no better, because IT Index remained almost range bound within 300 points of 7700-8000, but importantly it didn’t fall. But now there is signs of exhaustion and we have to accept it. Nifty and CNX IT Index gives clear bearish signal, only we have little hope on Bank Nifty where, we are expecting some support should come at 9400 levels, if this level is not hold then 8800-8500 is not very far ahead. 

Nifty Trend looks to be sideways to Negative and Nifty is trading in Over-Sold Zone. Global Cues are almost Negative. Nifty may continue its Upmove if it manages to HOLD above 5547 on Closing Basis, crosses 5570 and stays above 5593. The Upmove will be up to 5616 – 5636 – 5656 - 5685. On the other hand,  if it HOLDS below 5460, breaches 5434 and trades below 5420, to look for.we are seeing support near 5450 levels, which will be deciding level, Below  it is likely to be dragged down to 5402 – 5382 – 5362 – 5342 - 5330.

Moving Averages

Average	20 Days	50 Days	100 Days	200 Days
SMA	5777	5800	5839	5852
EMA	5719	5798	5826	5776

CMP	5507.85
Nifty Range	5249 to 5766
Pivot Point	5586
Turning Points	5502 - 5593
Positive Above	5579
Negative Below	5437
Bull Turning Point	5650
Bear Turning Point	5366

Factors of Concern/Major Events

1. Domestic and Global News/Cues (Especially from European and U.S. Markets).

2. Status of Rupee versus Dollar. Rupee depreciated to lowest - 62.

3. Impact of NSEL Issue.