Technical View of nifty on 01/07/2013

Nifty made a high of 5852 and closed near its high at 5842.20 and just close to it we have previous swing high of 5863. If Nifty, has to turn weak than in that case it will face resistance near this level, and which can be decided once Nifty opens. If opens below 5840 than we have to see whether Nifty manage to move higher or not. After such sharp jump, expectation of similar move is little irrational, as long as Nifty is holding above 5750 level, there is all possibility that Nifty will stay with positive bias. Below 5750, Nifty can move to cover the gap towards 5700 level, and which can drag prices further lower. So today the first resistance for nifty is at 5890-900 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5914-18,5938-42,5957-60,5992-96,6017-22,6061-65,6090-95 levels. On downside first support is at 5794-90 level. Next supports are at 5770-66,5746-42,5728-25,5695-90,5666-61,5622-18,5590-85,5569-65,5536-32,5518-14,5497-92,5477-74,5445-41 level.The trend is still weak but a move above 5914 can make the trend to shift to bull side.For short term 5890-5915 will be the resistance zone.So today on upside resistance are at 5900,5920 and 5940 level and on down side if below 5790 be very alert and avoid longs.

Positional Support for NIFTY 5830 5810 5750 5730 and positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5865 5861  5950 5930

Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5890 5938  6017  5957 5973

Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5794 5746 5666 5728 5712

Markets step on the gas; Sensex soars 3%, hits 3-week high

Mumbai, Jun 29 (PTI) Stocks: Shares flared up on smart rebound in rupee value coupled with steep hike in gas prices amid hopes US Fed will delay tapering monetary stimulus as the S&P BSE benchmark Sensex spurted 622 points to end at a three -week high of 19,395.81 points.

Hectic short-covering activity during the week in view of expiry of derivatives contract on June 27 also boosted the market, which snapped a three-week losing streak and posted handsome gains.

In a major step forward in energy sector reforms, the Centre on Thursday approved near doubling of natural gas prices to USD 8.4 per mmBtu from April 1 next and okayed setting up of a coal regulator. Last week, it allowed power producers to pass through higher imported coal prices.

Recovery in the rupee value to 59.21 levels at the tail-end of the week, which touched a historic low of 60.76 against dollar on Wednesday, after current account deficit (CAD) moderated "sharply" to 3.6 per cent of GDP in March quarter of 2012-13 fiscal from 6.7 per cent in December quarter, calmed nervous investors.

The Bombay Stock Exchange 30-share barometer resumed lower at 18,714.06 and dropped further to a two-month low of 18,467.16. However, it recovered after mid-week to hit a high of 19,432.94 before finishing at 19,395.81, showing a smart gain of 621.57 points, or 3.31 per cent. The key index had dropped by a massive 986.06 points, or 4.99 per cent, in the last three weeks.

The wide-based 50-share CNX Nifty of the NSE also rose by a healthy 174.55 points, or 3.08 per cent, to end at a three-week high of 5,842.20. It had dropped 318.30 points, or 5.32 per cent, in the last three weeks. 

CAD touches record high of 4.8% in 2012-13

New Delhi, Jun 27 (PTI) Current Account Deficit (CAD) touched a record high of 4.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2012-13 on rising gold and oil imports, though still better than market expectation, bringing relief to the Indian government which is struggling to arrest the sliding rupee.

CAD, which is the difference between the outflow and inflow of foreign currency, however, moderated "sharply" to 3.6 per cent of GDP in the last quarter of 2012-13 fiscal after it touched a historic high of 6.7 per cent in the October-December quarter.

It was 4.4 per cent in the March quarter of 2011-12.

The CAD was at USD 78.2 billion (4.2 per cent) in 2011-12 fiscal, but a higher oil and gold imports pushed it up to USD 87.8 billion (4.8 per cent) last fiscal, RBI data said.

The central bank''s comfort level for CAD is 2.5 per cent of GDP.

The Finance Ministry, meanwhile, said "the short-term increase or decrease in CAD should not be a cause for either optimism or pessimism".

"We must look at the figure at the end of the year where the CAD stands," it said.

The Rupee had touched a record low of 60.76 to a dollar yesterday. After the CAD data, the domestic currency recovered to 60.23 to the dollar.

"Markets have been over reacting as we have seen in the case of prediction for CAD last year which were much higher than 5 per cent and we have seen that it is much lower than 5 per cent," the Ministry said.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said petroleum and gold constituted about 45 per cent of total merchandise imports during 2012-13. While petroleum import rose by 9.3 per cent, gold import declined by 4.8 per cent during the fiscal.

For the full fiscal, gold import stood at USD 53.8 billion, down from USD 56.5 billion. .

Power advisory panel deliberates amendments to Electricity Act

New Delhi, Jun 26 (PTI) The high-level advisory panel on power sector today discussed possible amendments to the Electricity Act and made various suggestions, including mechanism to pass through higher fuel costs to consumers.

The government-appointed committee, chaired by Power Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, during its meeting here today deliberated on amendments to the Electricity Act 2003, sources said.

According to them, a sub-group of the panel presented a detailed report on amendments to the Electricity Act.

One of the suggestions made by the committee is to have a formula which would ensure that variation in fuel and power purchase cost is recovered by the generators.

A change in the Act in this regard would help in clarifying the need for surcharge formula which at minimum covers various costs, including mix variance that are to be passed through to consumers in a reasonable time-frame, sources further said.

Such a suggestion comes at a time when many power plants are facing issues related to rise in fuel costs, especially pricier overseas coal.

Besides, the panel has mooted the idea of having a cyber security policy to protect the country''s electricity system.

The advisory group was set up against the backdrop of multiple problems, including acute fuel shortages, hurting power generation in the country.

It has already discussed various issues related to coal, hydro and gas-fired power generation and transmission of electricity.

Members of the group include representatives from power producers and public sector lenders.

Tata Group Chairman Cyrus Mistry, Reliance Group Chairman Anil Ambani, SBI Chairman Pratip Chowdhary, ICICI Bank Managing Director Chanda Kochhar, BHEL Chairman and Managing Director B P Rao and Jaypee Group Chairman and CEO Manoj Gaur are part of the panel.

Volatile Sensex ends 88 pts higher; Bharti Airtel, ONGC surge

Mumbai, Jun 25 (PTI) After rising 260 points, the S&P Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex on Tuesday surrendered some gains on profit-booking in the last half an hour to end about 88 points higher helped by smart jump in bluechips like Bharti Airtel, ONGC and M&M, amid a stable trend in the rupee.

Firm European cues and talk of short-covering ahead of expiry of derivatives contract on June 27, also helped domestic stocks cement gains, said traders.

The Bombay Stock Exchange 30-share barometer commenced slightly lower following weak Asian cues as Chinese markets slumped over 5 per cent on fears of liquidity crunch.

Later, Sensex bounced back due to firm opening in Europe and touched a high of 18,802.31, showing a rise over 260 points. However, the surge proved to be short-lived as it partly succumbed to profit-booking to settle at 18,629.15, still showing a rise of 88.26 points or 0.48 per cent.

On Monday, it had tumbled by 233.35 points.

The wide-based 50-issue CNX Nifty of the NSE also rose by 18.85 points, or 0.34 per cent to 5,609.10. Also, SX40 index, the flagship index of MCX-SX, closed 84.79 points at 11097.94.

Sensex-based counters like ITC, ONGC, RIL, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, M&M and L&T were in keen demand while ICICI Bank, HDFC, SBI, TCS, NTPC, Tata Motors and Wipro ended down.

Bharti Airtel was in demand ahead of an EGoM meeting to decide on airwaves auction price. ONGC shot up by 3.8 per cent after OVL-OIL announced USD 2.5 billion buy of Videocon''s 10 per cent stake in a Mozambique gas field.

According to market participants, the market may remain volatile in the next couple of days ahead of expiry of the futures & options (F&O) June contract on Thursday.

"...selling continued in most of the midcaps and metal stocks. Despite gains, market breadth remained negative," said Nidhi Saraswat, Senior Research Analyst, Bonanza Portfolio.

Rupee was trading flattish at 59.6 levels on Tuesday after settling at all-time low closing of 59.67/68 against dollar on Monday. .

Sensex Rises 200 points

Indian equities extended gains in afternoon trade, tracking sharp recovery in China's Shanghai index that trimmed losses to 1.4% from 5%. European markets opened higher on Tuesday; Britain's FTSE & Germany's DAX gained aboutl 0.6% while France's CAC rose 0.7%.

The BSE Sensex is up 202 points or 1.09Z% at 18743. and the Nifty is up 55 points or 0.98% at 5645

Top nine companies lose Rs 35,893 cr in m-cap; HDFC Bank drags

Amid a weak stock market last week, blue-chips such as TCS, ONGC, RIL, ITC and HDFC Bank saw losses in their m-cap

Top nine blue-chip companies of the country saw a cumulative erosion of Rs 35,893 crore from their market value last week, with HDFC Bank and ITC taking the steepest hit.

Amid a weak stock market last week, blue-chips such as TCS, ONGC, RIL, ITC and HDFC Bank saw losses in their market capitalisation (m-cap), while bucking the trend IT major Infosys witnessed rise in its value.

HDFC Bank’s m-cap dipped by Rs 6,977 crore to Rs 1,51,325 crore, while the value of ITC plunged Rs 6,756 crore to Rs 2,55,110 crore.

The m-cap of RIL dropped by Rs 5,877 crore to Rs 2,56,936 crore, while TCS lost Rs 5,421 crore to Rs 2,78,424 crore and SBI’s value tanked Rs 3,820 crore to Rs 1,36,150 crore.

ONGC’s market worth slipped by Rs 3,293 crore to Rs 2,63,509 crore, HDFC (Rs 2,045 crore to Rs 1,26,989 crore, CIL (Rs 1,137 crore to Rs 1,88,985 crore) and HUL (Rs 567 crore to Rs 1,27,732 crore).

In contrast, Infosys saw an addition of Rs 1,390 crore to Rs 1,38,916 crore in its m-cap.

For more visit: Business-Standard

Technical view for next week (24/06/2013 to 28/06/2013)

Nifty has support at 5600, It may bring a small bounce on initial of  week. Next week is expiry so we may see more volatility. There is no resistance for rising market and there is no support for down market, now we are in down market so don't take any position with belief of supports bring reversals.

New traders and low risk takers may avoid the market. But may try the long side during break outs on blue chip stock which trade with high volume.

Avoid the overnight positions Difficult if not careful. Market may Move negative any minute. So be very cautious.

Positional Immediate support for NIFTY is 5600 and positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5786 5824 5834 5866 5869 5879 5931 5934 5978 .

Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5705 : 5737 : 5781 : 5797

Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5629 : 5597 : 5555 : 5540

Ind gold recovers from 2-week low; up Rs 260 on fresh buying

New Delhi, Jun 22 (PTI) Indian gold prices Saturday recovered from two-week low levels and surged Rs 260 to Rs 27,640 per 10 grams in the national capital Saturday on brisk buying by stockists amid a firm global trend.

Also, silver spurted by Rs 600 to Rs 42,300 per kg on revival of buying by industrial units and coin makers, following a steep fall in the previous session.

The trading sentiment bolstered after the gold recovered in overseas markets from its lowest levels since September 2010 on speculation the slump may spur purchases. The prices had tumbled after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S Bernanke said that the central bank may start curbing stimulus.

Gold in New York, which normally sets the price trend on the domestic front here, rose 0.8 per cent to USD 1,295.60 and silver by 0.5 per cent to USD 19.80 an ounce.

Besides, shifting of investor''s fund from melting equities to bullion further supported the sentiment.

In the national capital, the gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity shot up by Rs 260 each to Rs 27,640 and Rs 27,440 per 10 grams, respectively. Sovereigns gained Rs 50 to Rs 24,250 per piece of eight grams.

Silver ready jumped up by Rs 600 to Rs 42,300 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 500 to Rs 41,550 per kg. Silver coins continued to be asked at previous levels of Rs 78,000 for buying and Rs 79,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

Sintex Ind sinks on F&O exclusion

CHENNAI, JUNE 21:  

The stock of Sintex Industries slumped further by 5.25 per cent on Friday to Rs 41.55 on the NSE after the exchange decided to exclude the stock from the derivatives segment. The stock fell 3.5 per cent on Thursday.

The NSE, after market hours on Wednesday, said futures and options contracts for new expiry months in Sintex will not be issued on expiry of existing contract months. The existing unexpired contracts of expiry months June, July and August will continue to be available for trading till their respective expiry and new strikes will also be introduced on them. However, no contracts shall be available for trading in Sintex Industries with effect from August 30, the NSE added.

(This article was published on " The Hindu" June 21, 2013)

Imported coal to now make power costlier

Ending a year-long drama surrounding supply of coal to power plants, the Union Cabinet today allowed power companies to pass on to consumers the extra cost of importing coal to bridge the domestic fuel shortage. The decision will need regulatory go-ahead. If cleared, it will increase the electricity price in the country by an average 20-25 paise per unit.

Reacting to the government move, the stocks of power companies rose by up to two per cent on BSE. The scrip of NTPC rose 2.11 per cent over its previous close to Rs 143.05, while those of PowerGrid and Tata Power climbed 1.18 per cent and 0.74 per cent, respectively.

The Cabinet decision covers 78,000 Mw of power capacity commissioned in six years through March 2015. Over 36,000 Mw of this has already come on stream since March 2009. “Costly power is better than no power. More than Rs 1 lakh crore has already been invested in setting up around the 25,000-Mw capacity stranded at present. The choice is between paying more for electricity or having no electricity at all,” Finance Minister P Chidambaram said, announcing the decision.

The finance minister, who was accompanied by Coal Minister Shriprakash Jaiswal, said it was difficult to work out the exact quantum of increase in power rates, as it would vary from one power plant to another. He added implementing the decision would require modifications to the coal distribution policy and tariff guidelines.

The government had last year asked state-run miner, Coal India Ltd (CIL), to meet power companies’ coal demand, corresponding to at least 80 per cent of their annual contracted quantity (ACQ). The Cabinet has now decided CIL would meet 65 per cent of ACQ through domestic linkages in the current financial year. To meet the balance supply obligation, CIL will supply imported coal and supply on a cost-plus basis. The power firms would have the choice of importing coal on their own. Actual supplies would begin only after power purchase agreements (PPAs) are signed.

“We have advised the electricity regulator (CERC) to allow the increased cost of imported coal as a pass-through on a case-to-case basis, to ensure power investments remain viable,” Chidambaram said, calling the pass-through only an interim measure. He added power plants with more than 4,660 Mw of capacity would be left without assured coal supply even after today’s decision.

CIL will have to import six mt coal in the current financial year to meet the shortfall. “This import quantity would vary every year, depending on how many FSAs (fuel supply agreements) materialise. However, there would not be any need for imports in the terminal year (2016-17) at 80 per cent commitment level, given the growth in our coal production,” CIL Chairman S Narsing Rao told Business Standard. He also said power firms were likely to opt for sourcing imported coal through CIL, owing to assurance of supply and competitive prices.

The approval for pass-through cheered the power industry. “The Cabinet decision breaks the fuel impasse that was threatening the viability of the generation segment in the power sector and creating systemic risk for the banking sector,” said Ashok Khurana, director-general, Association of Power Producers.

The country’s largest private power generator, Tata Power, called for a similar mechanism for imported coal-based projects. “Such projects have been impacted due to extraneous factors beyond the control of developers,” the company said in a statement, referring to its 4,000-Mw Mudra project in Gujarat. The power regulator had recently allowed a compensatory tariff increase for the project after costly imported coal jacked up costs.

The government had originally asked CIL to meet supply obligations for projects with 60,000 Mw capacity. It was later increased to 78,000 Mw after taking into account the 7,000-Mw projects with valid letters of assurance (LoAs) and likely to be commissioned by March 2015, and 11,000 Mw of capacity that has been granted tapering linkages. However, today’s decision might lead to legal complications, as a sizeable chunk of this capacity has been set up through competitive bidding for tariffs.

According to the decision, CIL will continue supplies for the plants commissioned before 2009 at 90 per cent of ACQ.

For those commissioned after 2009, its supply commitment would increase gradually from 65 per cent this year to 75 per cent in the terminal year of the current Plan period. CIL produces 452 mt coal annually, leaving a shortfall of 120 mt, which is met through imports.

Source- Buisness Standard

Carnage across markets as Fed hints at shutting liquidity tap

It was carnage across Indian and global markets, including emerging market currencies today, following clear hints of withdrawal of stimulus measures by the US Federal Reserve should the US economic recovery in the US gather steam.

Global markets had been awash with liquidity from stimulus measures which saw a lot of this money being pumped into stocks. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, however, on Wednesday hinted at the withdrawal of stimulus, which would tighten liquidity leading to a fall in global markets and the Sensex.

The Nifty ended the day lower by 166 points, while the Sensex fell a huge 539 points (provisional), the biggest per centage fall since Sept 2011. Major indices in Europe were trading 2 per cent lower, while most of Asia also ended the day with huge losses, particularly those with huge current account deficits.

The Indian rupee also collapsed and according to news reports hit the 60 mark against the dollar, as fears remained that foreign funds would exit the Indian markets following the Federal Reserve statement on liquidity. Frequent statements from Indian government officials failed to soothe nerves.

Private sector banking stocks were the worst hit in trade, since they are heavily owned by foreign funds. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bank plunged 3-5 per cent in trade.

Heavyweights, ITC and Reliance were not spared either with both dropping sharply. The only stocks that remained resilient were the IT stocks on hopes that the falling rupee would boost margins and revenues.

Steel stocks were also hit badly in trade with Tata Steel and Jindal Steel falling 6-7 per cent.

Marketmen believe that the downslide in the Indian markets is likely to continue as India's economic fundamentals remain weak.

GoodReturns.in

Re plunge knee-jerk reaction, recovery on way: Economists

The rupee's plunging to record level and a sharp fall in the equity market are knee-jerk investor reactions to the US Federal Reserve's saying the it will slow down bond-buying programme in view of improving American economy, economists said today. The recovery of the world's largest economy, they said, will boost Indian exports. The rupee, which has touched all-time low of 60 against the US dollar in intra-day trade today, is also likely to appreciate from these levels, they added. Yesterday, the rupee had closed at 58.70, gaining 7 paise.

"I think, this is a knee-jerk reaction to Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's announcement regarding gradual tapering of the stimulus programme. But an overall improvement in the US economy will be beneficial to our exports growth," Crisil chief economist Dharmakriti Joshi told PTI here. Bernanke yesterday said he would gradually slow down the bond purchase programme of USD 85 billion per month (popularly known as quantitative easing) by the end of the year on the back of the recovery seen in economy. The announcement pulled down Asian markets which shed over 2 per cent, but the Sensex tumbled about 2.8 per cent - by over 526 points to reach 18,719 points.

"We will revise the rupee targets soon. We think the rupee will appreciate from the current level," Joshi said, adding that the market will stabilise as more clarity comes on the US stimulus programme.

Source- PTI

Indiabulls Power Ltd Technicals (21/06/2013)

7.3  -0.25 (-3.3%)

Details		Technicals for	21-06-2013
Open	7.45	Resistance 3	7.69
Last close	7.55	Resistance 2	7.57
Today's high	7.45	Resistance 1	7.44
Today's low	7.2	PP (Pivot Point)	7.32
Volume	1,576,056	Support 1	7.19
52-Week high	16.80	Support 2	7.07
52-Week low	7.05	Support 3	6.94
Trade Date	21-06-2013	50 DMA	8.37
Avg Vol.(5d)	5,432,203	200 DMA	11.22

Detailed Analysis

Indicator	Analysis
RSI	RSI is 35.3. According to RSI analysis, ibpow is technically weak.
MACD	MACD: -0.333 and Signal Line: -0.332. According to MACD analysis, ibpow is technically weak.
Simple Moving Average	According to simple moving average analysis, ibpow is in a strong downtrend. Major resistance levels are 7.7675, 8.371, 11.21975.
Exponential Moving Average	According to exponential moving average analysis, ibpow is in a strong downtrend. Major resistance levels are 7.750508, 8.404649, 10.68614.
Bollinger Bands	%b is 0.191. According to bollinger bands, ibpow is technically weak.
Fibonacci Retracement	According to fibonacci retracement, price is below all levels. Resistance levels are 7.9668 and 8.25. Support level is 7.05.
Average True Range	ATR: 0.352
Average Directional Index	ADX is 23.5 which means IBPOW is in a trading range and there is no trend.

SpiceJet Ltd Technicals (21/06/2013)

28.00 -1.25 (-4.2%)

Details		Technicals for	21-06-2013
Open	28.50	Resistance 3	29.84
Last close	29.25	Resistance 2	29.37
Today's high	28.90	Resistance 1	28.69
Today's low	27.75	PP (Pivot Point)	28.22
Volume	2,250,340	Support 1	27.54
52-Week high	50.90	Support 2	27.07
52-Week low	24.50	Support 3	26.39
Trade Date	20-06-2013	50 DMA	0.00
Avg Vol.(5d)	0	200 DMA	0.00

Indiabulls Power Ltd (20/06/2013)

7.55  0.15 (2.02%)

Details		Technicals for	20-06-2013
Open	7.4	Resistance 3	7.96
Last close	7.4	Resistance 2	7.78
Today's high	7.6	Resistance 1	7.66
Today's low	7.3	PP (Pivot Point)	7.48
Volume	716,637	Support 1	7.36
52-Week high	16.80	Support 2	7.18
52-Week low	7.05	Support 3	7.06
Trade Date	20-06-2013	50 DMA	8.40
Avg Vol.(5d)	5,211,328	200 DMA	11.23

Detail Analysis :

Indicator	Analysis
RSI	RSI is 39.8. According to RSI analysis, ibpow is technically weak.
MACD	MACD: -0.334 and Signal Line: -0.332. According to MACD analysis, ibpow is technically weak.
Simple Moving Average	According to simple moving average analysis, ibpow is in a strong downtrend. Major resistance levels are 7.8125, 8.397, 11.23275.
Exponential Moving Average	According to exponential moving average analysis, ibpow is in a strong downtrend. Major resistance levels are 7.797929, 8.449737, 10.72017.
Bollinger Bands	%b is 0.327.
Fibonacci Retracement	According to fibonacci retracement, price is below all levels. Resistance levels are 7.9668 and 8.25. Support level is 7.05.
Average True Range	ATR: 0.352
Average Directional Index	ADX is 23 which means IBPOW is in a trading range and there is no trend.