Global Market Update

  US Stocks Slightly Lower With Midterms Still Undecided… European Stocks Drop as Inflation Jitters Keep Buyers Cautious

·       US stocks marginally lower with midterm elections still being decided but as an expected "red wave" of Republican victories failed to materialize. Although many races were still too close to call, the emerging consensus among investors was that Congress was heading for more gridlock. Dow Jones slipped over quarter percent

·       European stocks fell for the first time in four days as investors turned cautious ahead of key US inflation data that could provide further clues on the course of monetary policy tightening. UK, France and Germany Index declined half percent each.

·       Oil fell 1% to below $95/bbl amid a challenging Chinese demand outlook and after an industry report pointed to rising US inventories.

·       Gold steadied  at $1709/ounce after jumping the most in a month as investors look to this week’s US inflation readings for hints on the precious metal’s direction.

·       FIIs were net buyers Rs387cr while DIIs were net sellers Rs1060cr

Market outlook for the next week 22/09/2014 to 26/09/2014

Markets managed to eke out modest gains of over one tenth of a percent, which took Sensex and Nifty above crucial levels of 27,050 and 8,100 on the indices for the passing week. The coming week is expected to be volatile one for Indian equity markets on account of F&O expiry, which is scheduled to take place on Thursday, September 25, 2014.

Meanwhile, market-participants, as usual would continue to track the momentum of rupee, FII trend. Besides, they would also track latest updates on monsoon. According to latest weather report, monsoon is likely to start withdrawing from the country within three-four days, more than a fortnight later than normal. However, with the withdrawal now in sight, the season's rain shortfall is expected to remain above 10%, making it a 'deficient' monsoon this year.

Besides, Power stocks would remain in focus for the coming week after Supreme Court on Friday restrained the CBI from filing any charge sheet or closure report in coal scam cases till it decides whether the investigating agency deputed director Ranjit Sinha to deal with the probe and prosecution for coal block allocation scam. Even Public sector Oil marketing companies (OMCs) stocks could be in limelight as amidst expectation that the fuel prices will be cut soon, which will be the first downward revision in over five years.

On the global front, market-participants would be eyeing slew of economic data from world’s largest economy US, starting from Existing home sale data on September 22, followed by New Home Sales data, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims and finally, GDP data on September 26, 2014.

Developments from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's US tour from September 27-30 will be closely watched. Narendra Modi will meet US President Barack Obama at the White House on 29-30 September 2014. The two leaders will discuss a range of issues of mutual interest in order to expand and deepen the US-India strategic partnership. They will discuss ways to accelerate economic growth, bolster security cooperation, and collaborate in activities that bring long-term benefits to both countries and the world. 

During the week, Nifty made a high of 8160.90, low of 7925.15 and finally closed at 8121.45 with a weekly gain of 15.95 points. For the coming week, 7977 followed by 7833 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while it may face resistance at 8213 and further at 8305 levels.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQUITY

NIFTY- PIVOT POINT         8069

MAJOR SUPPORT          7977 7833 7742

MAJOR RESISITANCE   8213 8305 8449

SENSEX-PIVOT POINT      26934

MAJOR SUPPORT        26621 26151 25837

MAJOR RESISTANCE   27404 27717 28187

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-CURRENCY-USD-INR

PIVOT POINT 61.03

MAJOR SUPPRT 60.70 60.48 60.15

MAJOR RESISTANCE 61.24 61.57 61.78

MARKET EVENTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK

SEP 22 CHINA-MFG PMI

SEP 23 PMI MFG DATA OF US, JAPAN & EURO ZONE 

SEP 24 US NEW HOME SALES, GERMANY BUSINESS CLIMATE DATA

SEP 25 CONSUMER DURABLE ORDERS-US, EURO ZONE MONEY SUPPLY(M3)

SEP 26 US GDP DATA

Market Outlook for the next week 21/07/2014 to 25/07/2014

The passing week was cheerful for the markets when the major bourses moving higher for four out of five sessions managed gains of about two and half a percent and the Nifty managed to retain its 6300 level. 

In the coming week, markets will be awaiting Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) data, which is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2014. However, ongoing result season would mainly provide cues. In the coming week, biggies like Canara Bank, Exide Industries, HDFC , HDFC Bank, Idea Cellular, Hindustan Zinc, Asian Paints, Axis Bank, Ceat, ING Vysya Bank, Thermax, Cairn India, L&T Finance Holdings, MRF, Yes Bank, ACC, Ambuja Cements, Bharti Infratel, Biocon, Mahindra & Mah Finance, TVS Motors , Wipro, Colgate Palmolive, JK Lakshmi Cement, Indian Bank among others. 

Besides, investors would also be tracking weather updates on monsoon, FDI trend and Rupee momentum among other things. As per the latest weather report, the southwest monsoon covered the entire country on Thursday, on the back of a surge in rain that has seen the monsoon deficit reduce 8 percentage points in the last five-six days. 

On the global front, traders will be eyeing important macro data from US, starting with Consumer Price Index on July 22, followed by Existing Home Sales, Jobless Claims, New Homes Sales, Fed Balance Sheet and finally Durable Goods orders data on July 25, 2014.

Technical viewpoints

During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 7,685.00 on July 18, 2014 and the lowest point of 7422.15 on July 14, 2014. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 7663.90 with a weekly gain of 204.30 points or 2.74%. For the coming week, 7495.70 followed by 7327.50 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face resistance at 7758.55 and further at 7853.20 levels.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQUITY 

NIFTY- PIVOT POINT       7590 

MAJOR SUPPORT         7495 7327 7232 

MAJOR RESISITANCE   7758 7853 8021 

SENSEX-PIVOT POINT      25415 

MAJOR SUPPORT       25117 24594 24296 

MAJOR RESISTANCE   25939 26327 26760 

USD/INR-NSE 

PIVOT POINT               60.14 

MAJOR SUPPRT        59.82 59.27 59.14 

MAJOR RESISTANCE 60.50 60.82 61.18 

MAJOR EVENTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK 

21 JULY GERMAN PPI 

22 JULY USA CPI 

23 JULY CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES USA 

24 JULY REATIL SALES UK 

25 JULY BANK LOAN GROWTH INDIA 

Market Outlook for the next week 09/06/2014 to 13/06/2014

Rallying for four out five trading session in the passing week, local equity markets accumulated massive gains of close to 5% and ended past record breaking 25,350 (Sensex) and 7,550 (Nifty ) levels respectively. 

In the coming week, market-participants will be tracking index of industrial production (IIP) figures for the month of April, slated to be released on June 12, 2014. India’s annual industrial output growth, measured by index of industrial production (IIP) contracted at 0.5% for March as compared to 9-month low figure of -1.9% in February. 

Besides, traders would also be eyeing May Consumer price index (CPI) data. The provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) climbed to three months high to 8.59% in April 2014 as compared to 8.31% in March and came worse than street's expectation of 8.48% figure for month under review. 

Additionally, street in the coming week will be keeping a close watch on Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s meeting with state counterparts on Monday as part of pre-budget consultations, where discussion related to progress towards the proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST) would be held. The meeting would be important especially because of policy signal emulating from it, with Jaitley readying himself to present the Union Budget early next month. The minister would also hold consultations with the finance ministers of states and Union Territories on June 9. 

Furthermore, IMD‘s forecast on rains will be keenly watched. India's rainy season usually starts in the first week of June. With the majority of the country's agricultural land dependent on monsoon, disparity in the rains' arrival date can hamper plans for sowing summer crops such as rice, sugar cane, cotton and oilseeds. 

On the global front, investors would be eyeing slew of major economic data from world’s largest economy, United States, starting from Jobless Claims and Retail Sales data on June 12, followed by PPI-FD data on June 13, 2014. 

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQUITY 

NIFTY- PIVOT POINT                    7472 

MAJOR SUPPORT                 7351 7119 6998 

MAJOR RESISITANCE           7704 7825 8057 

SENSEX-PIVOT POINT                  25029 

MAJOR SUPPORT                 24638 23880 23489 

MAJOR RESISTANCE             25787 26178 26396 

USD/INR-NSE 

PIVOT POINT                               59.38 

MAJOR SUPPRT                   59.08 58.90 58.59 

MAJOR RESISTANCE             59.56 59.87 60.05 

Market Outlook for the next week 12/05/2014 to 16/05/2014

Stock prices may see high volatility next week as exit polls will be out early in the week after the 9th and final phase of Lok Sabha elections concludes on Monday, 12 May 2014, and as election results will be out on Friday, 16 May 2014. A number of prominent companies are scheduled to announce their Q4 March 2014 and/or year ended 31 March 2014 (FY 2014) results next week. Investors are hoping that a stable government which will complete its full term of five years in office comes to power after the elections. A party or a pre-poll alliance will need 272 MPs to form government at the Centre, which is a simple majority in 543- member Lok Sabha. Investors are expecting measures for revival of the economy, business-friendly policies and good governance from the new government that comes to power after the elections. Investors expect policy measures from the new government to put India on a high-growth path on a sustainable basis. There are expectations that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be able to form the next government at the centre with support from some regional parties after Lok Sabha elections which conclude next week. Various opinion polls have forecast that the NDA with Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate is leading the race to Parliament. Most opinion polls have forecast that the NDA will be unable to form the government on its own and that it will have to rely on support from smaller regional parties to form the government. For the first time in mid-April, an opinion poll for a television news channel showed the NDA winning a narrow majority of 275 seats. The BJP in its Lok Sabha polls manifesto has promised more business-friendly policies if the party comes to power after elections. The BJP has said that measures for the revival of the economy are its priority if the party comes to power after  elections. India's GDP growth has slowed to a decade low of below 5%. The GDP grew 4.7% in Q3 December 2013. Narendra Modi, the prime ministerial candidate from the NDA, is perceived as being more business-friendly and decisive by the business community. As chief minister for the fast-growing state of Gujarat, Modi has built a reputation for getting things done. Once the new government is formed after the election results, investors' focus will shift to expectations from the first budget of the new government. The first budget of the new government is likely to be tabled in Parliament by July 2014. Although, investors, prior to this would like to watch out for exit polls, slated to be announced by various media organizations from Monday evening, broadly indicating how India has voted after the last votes are casted on May 12. Also, it’s going to be a data heavy week and traders will be eyeing the release of Index of industrial production (IIP), slated to be announced on May 12 amidst hopes that country’s factory output in March probably contracted for the fifth time in six months as manufacturing remained weak while more expensive food and fuel likely pushed inflation higher in April. Meanwhile, Consumer price index (Combined) too would be released on the same day. I.e. May 12, 2014. Post to this, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data, which would be released on May 15, would also be keenly watched out for cues on RBI’s stance in monetary policy review 5 Further, with the earning season drawing to its close, results of some prominent companies like D B Corporation, Indian Bank, Just Dial, Bank of Maharashtra, Dr Reddys Lab, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra and Asian Paints, Bajaj Auto and United Spirits among others will be announced during the week. 

On the global front, investors will be eyeing slew of important economic data from US, starting from Retail Sales data on May 13, followed by PPI-FD on May 14, Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production and Philadelphia Fed Survey data on May 15 and finally, the Housing Starts data on May 16, 2014. 

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQUITY

NIFTY- PIVOT POINT                   6790 

MAJOR SUPPORT                 6708 6557 6475 

MAJOR RESISITANCE           6941 7022 7173 

SENSEX-PIVOT POINT                22773 

MAJOR SUPPORT              22498 22002 21727 

MAJOR RESISTANCE          23269 23545 24041 

USD/INR-NSE 

PIVOT POINT                         60.22 

MAJOR SUPPRT              59.95 59.76 59.50 

MAJOR RESISTANCE        60.41 60.68 60.87 

MAJOR EVENTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK 

12 MAY 14 INDIAN IIPDATA & EXIT POLL REPORTS 

13 MAY 14 US-RETAIL SALES DATA 

14 MAY 14 US-PPI-FD DATA 

15 MAY 14 US-CPI-IP-FED SURVEY DATA & WPI DATA-INDIA 

16 MAY 14 US-HSG STARTS DATA & ELECTION RESULTS IN INDIA

Market Outlook for the next week 05/05/2014 to 09/05/2014

Investors will focus on the next batch of Q4 and year ended 31 March 2014 results next week. Trend in investment by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), trend in global markets, trend in other global emerging markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will be watched. Major results like Canara Bank, Emami and Piramal Enterprises will announce their January-March 2014 quarter results on Monday, 5 May 2014. Gillette India, HDFC and Titan Company will announce their January-March 2014 quarter results on Tuesday, 6 May 2014. Lupin, Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Health Care and Syndicate Bank will announce their January- March 2014 quarter results on Wednesday, 7 May 2014. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and Union Bank of India will announce their January-March 2014 quarter results on Thursday, 8 May 2014. Coromandel International, Eicher Motors, GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare and Ranbaxy Laboratories will announce their January-March 2014 quarter results on Friday, 9 May 2014. The final result of nine phased Lokh Sabha poll process, which started on April 7 and will end on May 12, is scheduled to be announced on May 16. Meanwhile, in the coming week traders will be eyeing HSBC India Services PMI data, which is due to be released on May 5, 2014. Contradicting indications of rebound in domestic economic growth, the activity in Indian services sector contracted in March on account of fall in new orders amid fragile economy. Meanwhile, foreign reserves data, which would be unveiled on May 5, 2014, too would be watched out by market-participants. On the global front, investors would first react to the US jobs report data scheduled to release on Friday .i.e. May 2, 2014. Besides, that participant will be eyeing some other crucial economic data from US, staring from International Trade data on May 6, followed by Jobless Claims on May 8, 2014. During the week, CNX Nifty touched the highest level of 6786.25 on April 28, 2014 and the lowest point of 6656.80 on April 30, 2014 and closed at 6694.80 with a weekly loss of 87.95 points. For the coming week, 6640 and 6580 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while it may face resistance at 6770 and 6840 levels.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQUITY 

NIFTY- PIVOT POINT                   6712

MAJOR SUPPORT                 6640 6583 6510

MAJOR RESISITANCE            6768 6842 6900

SENSEX-PIVOT POINT               22474

MAJOR SUPPORT               22228 22038 21971

MAJOR RESISTANCE          22665 22911 23100

USD/INR-NSE

PIVOT POINT 60.58

MAJOR SUPPRT 60.19 59.91 59.52

MAJOR EVENTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK

5 MAY INDIA SERVICES PMI EUROZONE PPI

6 MAY CHINA SERVICES PMI

7 MAY FRANCE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

8 MAY CHINESE CPI

9 MAY GERMAN TARDE BALANCE NUMBERS

Market outlook for the next week 28/04/2014 to 02/05/2014

Local equity markets scaling life-time high levels in the passing holiday truncated week, puffed up gains in the range of 0.25%- 0.45% and ended above the psychological 22,700 (Sensex) and 6750 ( Nifty) levels respectively. In the coming holiday truncated week, which marks the start of new month, market-participants would be watching out HSBC Manufacturing PMI, which is slated to be released on May 2. Stock markets would be shut for trade on May 1 on account of 'Maharashtra Day'. However, before that market will be watching out for Core sector data, to be released by the end of the month.The index of eight core industries rose 4.5% in February from a year earlier, compared with 1.6% in the previous month, according to data released by the commerce and industry ministry. Besides, Consumer price index (Industrial Workers) data would be released on April 30, 2014. Further, auto and cement companies would be in focus for the coming week as these companies will report their monthly sales figures. In the ongoing result season, traders will be eyeing earnings of prominent companies, including Godrej Consumer, Hindustan Unilever, Alstom T&D, Bharti Airtel, Ceat, Dabur India, TVS Motors, IDBI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bata India among others. On the global front, investors would be watching out for few economic data release from world's largest economy, United States (US), staring from GDP data on April 30, followed by Jobless Claims data, Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg Index and Employment Situation data on May 2, 2014. Next major support seen at 6745 and 6710 while major resistance at 6840 and 6905. Broadly, Macroeconomic data, trend in investment by foreign institutional investors, trend in global markets, trend in other global emerging markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement hold key. FMCG major Hindustan Unilever reports Q4 results on Monday, 28 April 2014. Bharti Airtel, Jindal Steel & Power and Sesa Sterlite will unveil their Q4 results on Tuesday, 29 April 2014. Kotak Mahindra Bank announces its Q4 results on Wednesday, 30 April 2014. Grasim Industries announces its Q4 results on Friday, 2 May 2014. Auto stocks will be in focus as companies from this sector will start reporting sales volume data for April 2014 starting from Thursday, 1 May 2014. PSU OMCs will be in focus. State run oil marketing companies (PSU OMCs) will review fuel prices on 1 May 2014 based on the average imported oil price in the previous fortnight. PSU OMCs review fuel prices on 1st and 16th of every month based on the average imported oil price in the previous fortnight.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQUITY

NIFTY- PIVOT POINT                   6808

MAJOR SUPPORT                   6747 6711 6650

MAJOR RESISITANCE             6844 6905 6941

SENSEX-PIVOT POINT                  22755

MAJOR SUPPORT                 22570 22452 22268

MAJOR RESISTANCE            22873 23057 23175

MAJOR EVENTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK

28 APRIL US HOME SALES DATA

29 APRIL US-CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA

30 APRIL FED RATE DECESION

1 MAY INDIAN MARKET CLOSED DUE TO MAHA DAY

2 MAY US HSBC PMI MFG DATA

Market Outlook for next week 21/04/2014 to 25/04/2014

The passing holiday truncated week was largely unproductive one for Indian equity markets, which ending flat, settled above the crucial 22,600 (Sensex) and 6750 (Nifty) levels respectively. In the coming another holiday truncated week, a lot of volatility is expected on account of F&O expiry on April 23, 2014, i.e. Wednesday. Expiry session which usually happens on Thursday will be held a day early as stock market remains closed on Thursday, on account of Parliamentary elections in Mumbai constituency.Meanwhile, next batch of Q4 and year ended FY 2014 results will dictate near term trend on the bourses. A number of prominent companies are scheduled to announce their earnings, including, Hindustan Zinc, HDFC Bank, LIC Housing Finance, MRF, L&T Finance Holdings, Mastek, Cairn India, Ultratech Cement, Yes Bank, ACC, Biocon, Ambuja Cements, Axis Bank, South Indian Bank, Exide Industries, ICICI Bank, IDFC, Siemens among others. However, markets will take opening cues from earnings of index heavyweight Reliance Industries, which was scheduled to be released on local holiday on Friday, i.e. April 18. Besides, trend in investment by foreign institutional investors and the movement of rupee against the dollar will be closely eyed by the investors. Foreign institutional investors have so far pumped in a staggering Rs 6783.5 crore in the Indian stock market this month, primarily on hopes of a strong reformist government after the general elections; provisional data from SEBI shows. On the global front, investors will be watching for slew of economic data from world's largest economy, United States, starting from Existing Home Sales data on April 22, followed by New Home Sales data and finally, the Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims data on April 24, 2014.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQUITY

NIFTY- PIVOT POINT                                 6748

MAJOR SUPPORT                               6678 6580 6509

MAJOR RESISITANCE                         6846 6917 7015

SENSEX-PIVOT POINT                              22540

MAJOR SUPPORT                             22286 21944 21692

MAJOR RESISTANCE                        22882 23135 23477

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT WEEK 14/04/2014 to 18/04/2014

The equity market remains shut on Monday, 14 April on account of Dr. Ambedkar Jayanti and on Friday, 18 April on account of Good Friday. Macroeconomic data, trend in investment by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), trend in global markets, trend in other global emerging markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement hold key.The coming holiday shortened week is expected to be a crucial one for Indian equity markets as it marks the start of Q4 earning season, which would formally commence with the earnings of IT bellwether, Infosys on April 15, 2014. With the onset of earning season, besides Infosys, traders would also be eyeing results of Indusind Bank, TCS, HCL Technologies, Wipro and Reliance Industries. Investors and analysts will closely watch the management commentary that would accompany the results to see if there is any revision in their future earnings forecast of the company for the year ending 31 March 2015 (FY 2015) and/or for the year ending 31 March 2016 (FY 2016). Indian companies will start reporting their Q4 and full year results from 15 April 2014. The result season will conclude in end-May 2014. Market-participants would also be eyeing the release of Consumer price index (CPI) data, scheduled to be released on April 15, which is expected to have edged up slightly in March due to higher food prices. However, before that Dalal Street is expected to react to IIP data, released after market hours on Friday, April 11.Besides, headline inflation data. i.e., Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data also is scheduled to be released on the same day.Additionally, CPI for Agricultural Labourers/ Rural Labourers also will be watched out on April 17, 2014. On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world's largest economy, United States (US), starting from Retail Sales data on April 14, followed by Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Jobless Claims and finally, the Philadelphia Fed Survey data on April 17. On the macro front, industrial production growth is seen inching up to 0.9% in February 2014, from 0.1% in January 2014, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. The government unveils industrial production data for February 2014 at 17:30 IST on Friday, 11 April 2014. The rate of inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) is seen edging up to 5.3% in March 2014, from 4.7% in February 2014, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. The government is scheduled to announce WPI inflation data for March 2014 at 12 noon on Tuesday, 15 April 2014. The rate of inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) is seen inching up to 8.2% in March 2014, from 8.1% in February 2014, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. The government is scheduled to announce CPI inflation data for March 2014 at 17:00 IST on Tuesday, 15 April 2014. A major near term trigger for the stock market is the outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The 36 days long voting process began on 7 April 2014 and will conclude on 12 May 2014. The results will be declared on 16 May 2014 after which India will get a new government. The term of the current Lok Sabha expires on 1 June 2014 and the new House has to be constituted by 31 May 2014. On the global front, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 29- 30 April 2014. The Federal Reserve on 19 March 2014 decided after the conclusion of a monetary policy review to trim its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. Fed's bond-buying program has been a source of liquidity for most Asian and emerging markets over the past few years.

TECHNICAL LEVELS AND MAJOR EVENTS TO WATCH OUT FOR NEXT WEEK

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQUITY

NIFTY- PIVOT POINT                        6749

MAJOR SUPPORT                     6678 6580 6509

MAJOR RESISITANCE              6847 6917 7015

SENSEX-PIVOT POINT                    22540

MAJOR SUPPORT                  22287 21945 21692

MAJOR RESISTANCE            22882 23135 23477

MAJOR EVENTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK

14th APRIL   MKT CLOSED DUE TO AMBEDKAR JAYANTI, US RETAIL SALES DATA.

15th APRIL   Q4 RESULTS SEASON STRARTS WITH INFOSYS & OTHERS, CPI data, WPI & Inflation rate for March.

16th APRIL US HSG STARTS & IIP DATA

17th APRIL US JOBLESS CLAIMS

18th APRIL MKT CLOSED DUE TO GOOD FRIDAY

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT WEEK 18/01/2014 to 21/03/2014

Domestic equity markets for week failed to show any fervor despite string of good macro-economic data and both Sensex
and Nifty ended with a cut of close to half a percent. In the coming week, investors would first await the release of inflation
data based on consumer price index (agricultural laborers/rural laborers) for February 2014, which is due to be released on
March 20, 2014. The stock market will remain closed on Monday, March 17 on account of 'HOLI' festival. Investors would
also like to read into figures of corporate advance tax payment for fourth and last installment, which is extended up to
March 18, 2014 that could provide clues on the likely Q4 March 2014 corporate earnings. Besides, PSU stocks will be in
focus for the coming week as NSE on March 18 will launch the much-awaited CPSE Index in order to facilitate the
government disinvests some of its stake in as many as 10 blue-chip public sector enterprises. The 10 major CPSEs (Central
Public Sector Enterprises) that will form part of the new index include, Coal India, GAIL (India), ONGC, IOC, Bharat
Electronics, Oil India, Power Finance Corporation, Rural Electrification Corporation, Container Corporation of India and
Engineers India.
On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from United States, starting from Industrial Production
data on March 17, followed by Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Housing Starts, more importantly FOMC Meeting
Announcement and Chair Press Conference on March 19, 2014, followed by Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Survey and
Existing Home Sales data on March 20, 2014. Investors will also be keenly track global markets for cues from the outcome
of the US Fed's next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for 18–19 March 2014. Trend in investment by
FIIs, trend in other global emerging markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will
also hold key. The FOMC next undertakes monetary policy review on 18-19 March 2014. After a monetary policy review, the
FOMC on 29 January 2014 announced it will reduce monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion to $65 billion. Fed's
bond-buying program has been a source of liquidity for most Asian and emerging markets over the past few years. The next
major trigger for the stock market is the outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Lok Sabha elections will be held
between 7 April 2014 and 12 May 2014 in nine phases. The counting of votes will be take place on 16 May 2014. The term
of the current Lok Sabha expires on June 1 and the new House has to be constituted by May 31. Along with the Lok Sabha
election, Andhra Pradesh (AP), including the regions comprising Telangana, Odisha and Sikkim will go to polls to elect new
assemblies. AP, Odisha and Sikkim assemblies come to end on June 2, June 7 and May 7 respectively. With the election
code of conduct coming into force, government authorities will not be able to announce any major policy initiatives.

TECHNICAL LEVELS AND MAJOR EVENTS TO WATCH OUT FOR NEXT WEEK

TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQ
NIFTY PIVOT POINT     6500
NIFTY SUPPORT             6437 6370 6307
NIFTY RESISTANCE       6567 6630 6697
SENSEX PIVOT POINT    21802
SENSEX SUPPORT       21581 21392 21130

SENSEX RESISTANCE    22031 22253 22482

MAJOR EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK

17 MARCH               INDUSTRIAL PROD DATA-US
18 MARCH              HSG STARTS & INFLATION RATE DATA
19 MARCH              CURRENT A/C DATA- US
20 MARCH              JOBLESS CLAIMS & HOME SALES DATA OF US

21 MARCH              NO MAJOR EVENTS

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT WEEK 03/03/2014 to 07/03/2014

Rallying for four out of five sessions, Indian equity markets accumulated gains of over 1.5% for the week and ended past the crucial 20,700 
(Sensex) and 6,150 (Nifty) levels respectively. In the coming holiday truncated week, Indian equity markets are expected to witness lot of 
volatility as traders will adjust their position on account of expiry of February F&O series. The expiry will be a day earlier from the usual, as 
the market will remain shut for ‘Mahashivratri’ on Thursday February 27. 

In the coming week, investors would eagerly be eyeing the release of Q3GDP data on February 28, 2014. Gross domestic product grew 
4.8% in the second quarter of the fiscal year on impressive agriculture sector performance and improvement seen on the industry side, 
according to data released by the Central Statistics Office. 

The output growth of eight core sector industries for the month of January would also be watched by market-participants in the coming 
week. The eight core industries, which have a combined weight of about 38 per cent in the Index for Industrial Production (IIP), slowed to 
2.1 per cent in December 2013 due to a poor showing by coal, petroleum refinery products, steel and cement sectors. Besides, data on 
Consumer price index (Industrial Workers) is also due to release on February 28, 2014. 
On the global front, investors would be eyeing slew of economic data from world’s largest economy, United States (US), starting from New 
Home Sales data on February 26, followed by Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims and finally, the GDP data on February 28, 2014. 
In short, Macroeconomic data, trend in investment by FIIs, trend in global markets, trend in other global emerging markets, the movement 
of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate the near term movement on the domestic bourses. Concerns about 
slowdown in capital inflow may weigh on the domestic bourses after a Federal Reserve report this week showed support for a plan to 
reduce monetary stimulus for the US economy. Fed's bond-buying program has been a source of liquidity for most Asian and emerging 
markets over the past few years. 
Automobile shares will be in focus as automobile companies start unveiling monthly sales volumes data for February 2014 from Saturday, 1 
March 2014. 
Future trading on NSE’s volatility index -- India VIX -- begins from Wednesday, 26 February 2014. India VIX is a volatility index based on the 
index options prices of CNX Nifty. The contract value of India VIX futures will be minimum Rs 10 lakh at the time of introduction of futures 
trading in India VIX, NSE had said early this month.

TECHNICAL LEVELS AND MAJOR EVENTS TO WATCH OUT FOR NEXT WEEK

TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQ 
NIFTY PIVOT POINT                                  6141 
NIFTY SUPPORT                              6122 6089 6071 
NIFTY RESISTANCE                       6174 6193 6226 
SENSEX PIVOT POINT                             20675 
SENSEX SUPPORT                        20625 20550 20500 

SENSEX RESISTANCE                   20750 20800 20875

MAJOR EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK 

24FEB          PMI SERVICE FLAT 
25 FEB        CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA 
26 FEB         NEW HOME SALES DATA- US 
27FEB          US JOBLESS CLAIMS DATA 
28FEB          Q4 2013 GDP DATA-INDIA, NEW HOME SALES-US,

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT WEEK 23/12/2013 TO 27/12/2013

In the coming holiday truncated week, Indian equity markets are expected to witness lot of volatility as traders will adjust position on account of expiry of derivatives contracts on December 26. Meanwhile, market will remain shut for Christmas holiday on December 25. The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near month December 2013 series to January 2014 series Further, investors in the coming week will watch the CPI Index data for Agricultural Labourers/ Rural Labourers, scheduled to be released
on December 20. Additionally, investors would be eyeing the momentum of CPI-indexed bonds, which are set to be launched on December 23, and will close for subscription on December 31. The RBI will launch CPI-indexed bonds aimed at protecting the savings of retail investors from the impact of price rise.
FII’s momentum too will be closely observed during the coming week after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) after a two-day monetary policy meeting on 18 December decided to trim down its US Federal Reserve's massive bond purchase programme by $10 billion a
month, starting January 2014. Global Investors would be eyeing release of macro-economic data from US economy, United States, starting from Personal Income and Outlays on December 23, followed by Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales data on December 24, and finally the Jobless Claims data on December 26.
Fed’s gradual and conditional taper’s decision countered with RBI’s status quo stance on key policy rates worked wonders for Indian equity markets, which rallied close to two percent for the week and ended well above the crucial 21,100 (Sensex) and 6,250 (Nifty) levels respectively.
AXIS Bank will replace Jindal Steel & Power as a constituent of the S&P BSE Sensex with effect from Monday, 23 December 2013. FII inflow and trend in other global emerging markets and the movement of rupee against the dollar hold key. During the last week, CNX Nifty made a high of 6284.50 and low of 6129.95, finally closed at 6 274.25 with a weekly gain of 105.85 points.
Next week major support seen on nifty at 6175 and 6075 while it may face resistance at 6330 and 6385.
TECHNICAL LEVELS AND MAJOR EVENTS TO WATCH OUT FOR NEXT WEEK

TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQ
NIFTY PIVOT POINT                            6230
NIFTY SUPPORT                          6175 6075 6020
NIFTY RESISTANCE                     6330 6385 6485
SENSEX PIVOT POINT                        20920
SENSEX SUPPORT                       20725 20370 20175

SENSEX RESISTANCE                  21275 21470 21825

MAJOR EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK
23 DEC                 IMPACT OF AGRI/RURAL CPI DATA,MACRO ECO DATA FROM US
24 DEC                 US NEW HOME SALES DATA
25 DEC                 CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY
26 DEC                 US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS

27 DEC                 NO MAJOR EVENTS

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT WEEK 09/12/2013 to 14/12/2013

In the coming week, markets would first react to the results of state assembly election, which declared on December 8.
The strong showing for the key opposition party (BJP) in four of the five states, namely
Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In short, High volatility is expected next week as the market will react
sharply to the verdict of assembly elections in key states.
Investors in the coming data heavy week would be awaiting the release of October’s Index of IIP data, which is scheduled to
release on December 12. However, the number is not expected to throw up any positive surprise as output of eight core sector
industries having a combined weight of about 38% in the IIP, contracted by 0.6% in October due to poor showing by coal, oil
and gas sectors. Further, release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on the same day, i.e., December 12 also will be closely
tracked by the investors. The provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general Consumer Price Index (CPI)
(Combined) for October 2013 accelerated to 10.09%, higher than expectation of over 10%.
Besides, proceedings of the ongoing winter session of Parliament would be closely watched by the investors, where there a total
of 29 bills for consideration and passage, 5 new bills for introduction and 2 bills listed for introduction, consideration and
passing. The winter session of parliament began on 5 December 2013 and it will possibly be the last session before the General
Elections in 2014. Other important bills like the Judicial Standards and Accountability Bill, 2012, the Insurance Laws
(Amendment) Bill, 2008, the Indo-Bangla land boundary agreement discussion and voting on supplementary grants for both
railways and general are all pending. The challenge before the UPA is to pack all of these in 12 working days.
On the global front, investors would first await the release of US monthly jobs data, due to release after Indian market closing on
Friday, which could give some cues on the likely timing of the Fed taper. Besides, investors in the coming week would be eyeing
few other economic data from the world’s largest economy, starting from Jobless Claims data on Retail sales data on December
12, followed by Producer Price Index data on December 13.

TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQ
NIFTY PIVOT POINT            6237
NIFTY SUPPORT              6173 6086 6022
NIFTY RESISTANCE         6324 6387 6474
SENSEX PIVOT POINT         20945
SENSEX SUPPORT              20725 20453 20233

SENSEX RESISTANCE         21217 21437 21709

MAJOR EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK
9 DEC           STATE ELECTION OUTCOMEIMPACT
10 DEC         NO MAJOR EVENTS
11 DEC         NO MAJOR EVENTS
12 DEC        JOB LESS CLAIM, RETAIL SALES,
                    CPI/WPI INFLATION DATA

13 DEC          PMI/IIP DATA-INDIA

NIFTY TREND ANALYSIS & LEVELS FOR 04/12/2013

Nifty closed on a bear note at 6217 level.So today on upside first resistance is at 6235-40.Next resistance are at 6275-80,6315-20,6333-37,6355-60,6372-76,6406-11,6437-42,6477-82 on downside first support is at 6167-62 level.Next support are at 6150-45,6125-20,,6103-100,6084-80,6061-57,6035-30,6013-08,5980-75,5940-35,5908-03,5880-75,5845-41,5826-21,5793-88 level.The trend is with bulls Nifty still in bull trend So today if below 6162 be alert and stay away from long side and on upside above 6240 trend is good for bulls .As far as fundametal is considered we wont think all stocks are overvalued so make the correction an opportunity to shift portfolios and buy company with good fundamental. 
Positional Support for NIFTY 6139 6117 6092 6088 6065 5982 5886 5859 and positional Immediate resistance for NIFTY is 6241.
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 6220.5 : 6235.9 : 6304 : 6320.5 : 6337.1
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 6183.2 : 6167.8 : 6100.6 : 6084.3 : 6068.1

NIFTY TREND ANALYSIS & LEVELS FOR 03/12/2013

Nifty closed on a strong bull note at 6217 level.So today on upside first resistance is at 6233-37.Next resistance are at 6250-55,6273-78,6290-95,6305-10,6333-37,6372-76,6406-11,6437-42,6477-82 on downside first support is at 6201-97 level.Next support are at 6185-80,6160-55,6144-39,6105-100,6084-80,6061-57,6035-30,6013-08,5980-75,5940-35,5908-03,5880-75,5845-41,5826-21,5793-88 level.The trend is with bulls So today unless below 6180 bulls have the edge and on upside resistance are at 6237 and 6255 level and on down side support are at 6197 and 6180 level .As far as fundametal is considered we wont think all stocks are overvalued so make the correction an opportunity to shift portfolios and buy company with good fundamental.
Positional Support for NIFTY 6135 6110 6092 6079 6064 5967 5882 5857 and positional Immediate resistance for NIFTY is 6241.
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 6249.5 : 6275.8 : 6336.7 : 6353.3
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 6186.2 : 6159.9 : 6100.1 : 6083.9

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT WEEK 02/12/2013 to 06/12/2013

The passing F&O expiry week remained pleasant for Indian equity markets, which gaining for three out of five trading session
puffed up gains of over three percent, ended past the crucial 20,750 (Sensex) and 6,150 (Nifty) psychological levels
respectively.
Markets in the coming week would first react to the Q2 GDP numbers released after market hours on Friday. Additionally, in the
coming data heavy week which marks the start of fresh month, investors would first eye the release of HSBC Manufacturing
PMI data on December 2, followed by HSBC Service PMI data on December 4.
Further, while Auto and Cement companies would grab some attention as these companies will announce their monthly sales
figures in the coming week, telecom stocks too are expected to remain in limelight. EGOM on telecom headed by FM, is likely to
meet next week to discuss the long waited mergers and acquisition rules. while, the cabinet has already announced broad
guidelines with respect to M&A policy, the EGoM has to take call on pricing and fees related to M&A rules, which include
spectrum charges that an entity formed after merger would have to pay on its total holding, lock-in period of the merged entity
and a transfer fee on spectrum allocated to a company and gets moved to another entity within period of three years as result
of M&A.
Investors would continue to keep a track on Rupee and FII’s momentum. However, even DIIs trend would be watched after
they returned to the markets, by buying shares.
On the global front, investors would await the release of few economic data from US economy, starting from ISM Mfg Index
data on December 2, followed by International Trade, New Home Sales data, GDP data and finally, the Employment Situation
and Personal Income and Outlays data on December 6.

TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQ

NIFTY PIVOT POINT                                     6130
NIFTY SUPPORT                                   6076 5977 5925
NIFTY RESISTANCE                              6229 6282 6381
SENSEX PIVOT POINT                                 20646
SENSEX SUPPORT                               20472 20153 19979

SENSEX RESISTANCE                         20965 21139 21459

MAJOR EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK

2 DEC                   HSBC Mfg PMI Data+ ISM Mfg Data, ISM mfg index
3 DEC                   PPI IN EURO ZONE FOR OCT 13
4 DEC                   HSBC Service PMI data, Bal of trade for Oct, New Home sales data
5 DEC                   Initial jobless claims data
6 DEC                   Intl Trade, New Home sales data, ESPIO data in US

NIFTY TREND ANALYSIS & LEVELS FOR 29/11/2013

Nifty closed on a bull note at 6091 level.So today on upside first resistance is at 6123-28.Next resistance are at 6148-52,6170-75,6210-15,6246-50,6278-83,6311-16,6356-61,6406-11,6437-42,6477-82 on downside first support is at 6060-55 level.Next support are at 6035-30,6013-08,5980-75,5940-35,5908-03,5880-75,5845-41,5826-21,5793-88 level. So today above 6125 the bull move may become stronger and on downside if below 6055 be alert and below 6030 bears have the edge .As far as fundametal is considered we wont think all stocks are overvalued so make the correction an opportunity to shift portfolios and buy company with good fundamental. 
Positional Support for NIFTY 6077 6075 6051 5942 5875 5854 and positional Resistance for NIFTY is 6116 6155 .Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 6122.5 : 6148 : 6209.5 : 6225.9
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 6061.2 : 6035.7 : 5975.3 : 5959.3