Next week market outlook from 14/11/2022 to 19/11/2022from from

·       In the coming week investors will be watching a spate of economic data, including US retail sales numbers on Wednesday, for more clues on whether the Fed's monetary policy tightening is cooling the economy. On the domestic front, Indian Retail Inflation data (CPI) will be announced on Monday which will be important for the market while most of the quarterly results have almost announced.

·       Expects rally to continue in the domestic equity on optimism that cooler-than-expected US inflation will lead to smaller rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and on China’s move to loosen its Covid Zero policies. On the domestic front, USDINR fell sharply to close 2-month low at below 81 indicated aggressive FIIs buying interest (FIIIs net buyers nearly Rs7k this week). Moreover, strong macro data - October PMI reported 6-month high to above 55, 4-month high September IIP data, stable oil price, impressive quarterly results and strong GST collection, will be positive for the market sentiment. Expect beaten down metal (China to relax zero covid policy stance) and IT stocks (global IT Major Index Nasdaq gained 7% this week) will be big positive for next week

·       The domestic market joined the global run as markets across the world cheered the lower-than-expected US inflation data and this was one of the best week in the stock market history. Indian bourses ended on record supported by strong domestic macro data and blessing by US inflation data which has fallen to significantly lower than estimated level along with core inflation number.

·       Global market witnessed biggest gains (between 3-8% and S&P 500 close to 4000 mark psychological level) in over two years after the US Inflation for October has come in at 7.7% (expectation at 7.9%) against previous month was at 8.2%. Core Inflation fell to 6.3% while expectation was 6.5%. US Dow Jones climbed up over 1300 points or 3.5% and Nasdaq Composite skyrocket by 7% against the previous week close. A slowdown in US inflation could mean the Federal Reserve won’t have to be so aggressive about raising interest rates. Market expect that the US Fed to raise rates again next month but by a smaller margin of one-half percentage point after a series of 0.75 percentage-point increases. US 10-Year (3.80% from 4.2%) and 2-year bond yield declined by 10% on a single day while Dollar Index fell to 4-month low to below low to below 106.

 

Weekly Update (Week on Week)

 

·       A sharp recovery in the rupee and unabated foreign capital inflows further bolstered sentiment. Sensex zoomed  845 points or 1.40% to settle at 61,795 -- surpassing its previous closing peak of 61,765 hit on October 18, 2021. Likewise, the broader Nifty rallied 233 points or 1.3% cent to finish at 18,350. This week, there was rally in PSU Bank, IT and Metal stocks.

·       Banking stocks witnessing major gainers this week led by HDFC twins and PSU Bank. Nifty PSU Bank Index soared by 6% after announced strong Q2 results. PSU Bank Index surged by 28% just one month. Nifty Metal Index gained by 2% on expectation of improve demand after China announced to partially remove covid lock down and US Dollar Index fell to 3-month low. Nifty IT Index advance 2% due to attractive valuation and Global IT Major Index Nasdaq Composite spiked by 7%. However, Nifty Pharma Index slipped 3% due to poor quarterly results announcement. Nifty Auto Index slipped by 2% after auto major Tata Motor reported lower than expected Q2 results

 

Short Term Buy

 

·       Cochin Shipyard, National Aluminium, Adani Ports, HDFC, Bank of India, SAIL, Tata Steel, Zomato, BoB, LTTS, Coforge

 

Long Term Buy

 

·       Axis Bank, Hindalco, LIC India, Infosys, TCS, SBI, Zee Entertainment, Reliance Industries, HAL, Patanjali Foods, Indian Hotel

 

Technical Levels

 

·       Nifty index has formed a Bullish candle on daily and weekly frame and has been forming higher lows from the last six weeks. Now, it has to hold above 18300 zones, for an up move towards 18500 then 18600 zones whereas supports are placed at 18188 and 18088 zones.

·       Bank Nifty has formed a Doji candle on daily frame and a Bullish candle on weekly frame. Now it has to hold above 41840 zones for an up move towards 42500 and 42750 zones whereas supports are placed at 41750 and 41500 zones.

 

Global Market Update

 

·       US, Europe and Asian markets gained between 3-8% this week.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 8% this week to notch its biggest weekly gain since March on optimism that a slower-than-expected US inflation print will lead to smaller rate hikes by US Fed. Moreover, expectation that the China to relax zero covid policy stance will be back in global demand. US Inflation for October has come in at 7.7% (expectation at 7.9%) against previous month was at 8.2%. Core Inflation fell to 6.3% while expectation was 6.5%. Cooler-than-expected US inflation data set the stage for a slowdown in aggressive interest-rate hikes resulted US 10-Year and 2-year bond yield corrected 10% from the peak and Dollar Index fell to 3-month low.

 

Commodity

 

·       Gold surged 5% to 3-month high at $1771/ounce following tweaks to China’s Covid-19 rules, the US inflation print, and weakness in the dollar, and events next week will shape whether gains hold or wither.

·       Brent Crude advance 2% to $96/bbl following China's announcement that it would relax some of its hardline Covid-19 restrictions, including shortening its quarantine requirements for international travelers by two days. Market expectation global demand will improve after China announced to partially lifted covid lockdown.

 

FIIs and DIIs

 

·       FIIs were net buyers Rs6330cr

·       DIIs were net sellers Rs2255cr

 

Results

 

·       Monday – Aarti Industries, Abbott India, Bharat Forge, Biocon, CESC, FDC, Grasim, GM Infra (Airport), Greaves Cotton, HUDCO, Indiabull Housing, IRCTC, IOL Chemical, Kaveri Seed, KNR Construction, LUX Industries, Mazda, Munjal Auto, Mishra Dhatu, NMDC, NBCC, ONGC, Parag Milk, SpiceJet, Sobha, Star Cement, Stovec, Uttam Sugar

·       Tuesday – Rajesh Exports

 

Corporate Action

 

·       Monday – PFC Dividend Rs5, EPL Rs2.15, Compuage Infocom Right issue 8:25 at a premium Rs18

·       Tuesday – Aegis Logistic Dividend Rs2, P&G Rs15, Coal India Rs15, Amaraja Batteries Rs2.90

·       Wednesday -  Motherson Aumi Wiring Bonus 2:5, Computer Age Manage Rs8.50

·       Thursday – Dhanuka Agritech Share Buy-Back, PDC Dividend Rs2.50, Oriental Carbon Rs7.

 

Global Data

 

·       US – Tuesday – Empire Manufacturing, Food, Manufacturing and commodities. Wednesday – MBA Mortgage Application, Retail sales data, Industrial Production Data, NAHB Housing Data. Thursday – Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Data. Friday – Existing Home sales Data

·       Europe – Monday - House Price Data, Economy Survey (UK), Economy Survey (Germany), Economy Survey (France). Tuesday – Whole Price Index (Germany), CPI, Unemployment Rate (France), Payroll, Employment Rate, Jobless Claims (UK). Wednesday – CPI, Retail Sales (UK). Friday – Retail sales, Consumer Confidence (UK)

·       China – Tuesday - Industrial Production, Industrial Production. Wednesday – New Home Sales

·       India – Monday – WPI, CPI, Exports & Import.

Nifty Technical outlook for 03/09//2013

 Nifty was on a bull trend and closed at 5550 level. So today the first resistance for nifty is at 5576-81 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5602-07,5625-28,5645-50,5667-72,5695-700,5754-59,5776-81,5807-12 levels. On downside first support is at 5524-19 level. Next supports are at 5499-94,5477-73,5455-50,5438-33,5408-03,5361-57,5335-30,5300-95,5262-58,5225-20,5211-06,5178-73,5143-38,5080-75,5030-25,4983-78 level.The medium-long trend is still weak and if nifty strongly stays above 5600 it may change to bull side. So today on upside intra resistance are at 5581 and 5607 level and on downside if below 5494 be very alert and avoid all longs

Positional Support for NIFTY 5458 5395 and positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5570 5719 5724 5754 5802 5827 5848 .
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5602.4 : 5645.2 : 5663.1 : 5678.7
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5499.1 : 5456.3 : 5439.6 : 5424.2

Technical Outlook of nifty for 29/08/2013

Nifty tanked and recovered from the lows of 5118 to close almost on a flat note at 5285. So today the first resistance for nifty is at 5342-47 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5359-63,5397-02,5430-35,5490-95,5540-45,5569-73,5589-93,5625-28,5642-47,5754-59,5776-81,5807-12 levels. On downside first support is at 5248-45 level. Next supports are at 5228-24,5211-06,5178-73,5143-38,5080-75,5030-25,4983-78 level.The medium-long trend is still weak but a strong move above 5347 is good for bulls in short term.On downside if nifty is below 5224 there will be next round of selling.So on upside intra resistance are at 5347 and 5402 level.

Positional Immediate support for NIFTY is 5109

positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5441 5493 5632 5741 5745 5784 5827 5829 5851 

Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5341.1 : 5397.2 : 5490.3 : 5394.6 : 5409.9

Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5228.9 : 5172.8 : 5079.7 : 5176.5 : 5161.6

Technical Outlook for nifty on 28/08/2013

Nifty tanked to 5287. So today the first resistance for nifty is at 5342-47 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5360-64,5398-03,5433-38,5490-95,5540-45,5569-73,5589-93,5625-28,5642-47,5754-59,5776-81,5807-12,5824-28,5849-54,5889-94,5935-40,5960-65,5980-85,6001-06,6025-30,6040-45,6080-85,6105-10,6145-50,6194-98,6233-38 levels. On downside first support is at 5251-47 level. Next supports are at 5232-27,5195-90,5175-70,5144-39,5084-80,5034-30,4983-78 level.The medium-long trend is weak and unless a move above 5350 better above 5400 do not expect in bull side and below 5227 trend is very weak.If intially nifty dips and 5227 level is not broken and nifty stays strongly above this level for some time index may slightly rebound from this level.

Positional Immediate support for NIFTY is 5243
positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5482 5520 5662 5753 5760 5797 5832 5836 5853 .
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5342.8 : 5398.2 : 5490.2 : 5397.1 : 5412.4
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5232.1 : 5176.7 : 5084.7 : 5178.9 : 5164

Technical Outlook of nifty next week 26/08/2013 to 30/08/2013

CMP	5471.75
Nifty Range	5222 to 5722
Pivot Point	5410
Turning Points	5495/5392
Positive Above	5541
Negative Below	5403
Bull Turning Point	5609
Bear Turning Point	5334

Nifty has closed (5471.75) well above Weekly Pivot Point (5410).

Nifty has immediate Resistance at 5492 and then at 5504. Nifty must cross 5515 and stay above 5526 on Closing Basis to continue its Up-move. If Nifty manages to cross and decisively close above 5542, it may go up to 5556 – 5572 – 5586 - 5602. Further Up-move Levels will be 5616 – 5635 – 5652 - 5673.

Nifty has immediate Support at 5457 and then at 5433. If Nifty breaches 5419, it may go down to 5403 – 5389. Nifty will get weak below 5375 and may go down to 5351 – 5331 – 5318 - 5301. Further Down-move Levels will be 5282 – 5257 – 5241 – 5227.

Moving Averages 

Average	20 Days	50 Days	100 Days	200 Days
SMA	5620	5757	5827	5846
EMA	5597	5730	5784	5759

General Out-Look

Nifty Trend looks to be sideways to Negative and Nifty is trading in Over-Sold Zone. Global Cues are Mixed. Nifty may continue its Upmove if it manages to HOLD above 5515 on Closing Basis, crosses 5526 and stays above 5542. The Upmove will be up to 5556 – 5572 – 5586 - 5602. On the other hand if it HOLDS below 5419, breaches 5403 and trades below 5389, it is likely to be dragged down to 5375 – 5351 – 5331 – 5318 - 5301.

Factors of Concern/Major Events
1. Domestic and Global News/Cues (Especially from European and U.S. Markets).

2. Status of Rupee versus Dollar. Rupee depreciated to lowest 65+ but recovered on Friday, 23-8-13 to 63+.

3. Impact of QE3 tapering by FED.

4. Aug-13 F&O Expiry on 29-8-13 – Volatility expected.

5. GDP Data for Q-1 coming out on 30-8-13 which is likely to be weak.

6. FIIs Buying/Selling volume during Aug-13 F&O Expiry Week.

Technical outlook of nifty on 07/08/2013

The massive sell-off witnessed on the market today, sensex hits 52 week low after the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex crashed 449 points or 2.34% to closing at 18,733 points today. Sensex has tanked 1,569 points in past two weeks from level of 20,302 on July 23. The index had hit 52-week low of 17,251 on September 5, 2012. Bankex also hits 52-week low on worries that continued monetary tightening would drive up bad loans. The rupee touched a record low 61.81 against the dollar in noon deals today.

Nifty reached 5550 as we predicted on sunday, Nifty traded at the low of 5521.80, and finally closed at 5542.25. We have the support at 5500 and expect short covering rally on tomorrow if rupee supports. So the first resistance for nifty is at 5600 level. On downside be alert below 5500 and avoid longs below that level. The trend is weak and below 5450 the nifty is very weak be very alert and avoid bottom fishing .So  below 5500 avoid all longs and long should be taken only if nifty stays strongly above 5640 even for short term.

Positional Immediate support for NIFTY is 5500
positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5787 5835 5860 5862 5865 5872 5884 5914 5920 .
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5587.1  5632 5706.5  5654.5  5670.1
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5497.4  5452.5  5378  5431.1  5415.8

Nifty outlook for 01/08/2013

Today nifty was on slight bear trend, the 50-share Nifty declined 13 points at 5,742 levels. Sensex ended on a flat note after a volatile trading session as investors braced for the US Federal Reserve policy meeting with caution. The 50-share Nifty index, however, ended weak with Bank Nifty bearing the maximum brunt after the Reserve Bank of India turned unexpectedly dovish in the monetary policy review yesterday which made the rupee slide below the 61/dollar. The 30-share Sensex ended lower 2.6 points at 19,345.70 and The broader markets ended lower with mid-caps and small-caps falling nearly 1 per cent on the BSE. The market breadth was negative. Out of 2,370 stocks traded, 1,392 stocks declined while 837 stocks advanced on the BSE.

Overseas investors have pulled out around Rs 18,400 crore across both the equities and debt markets. The outflow of foreign money from the debt market was higher compared to the equities markets during the month. FIIs moved out close to Rs 12,000 crore in debt, while equities saw outflows of about Rs 6,000 crore in July and Indian rupee fell to as low as 61.17 to the dollar in today’s trade on month-end dollar demand from importers. Now the rupee trading at Rs 60.86 compared with previous close of Rs 60.49 against the dollar. This is not good for market, so approach market cautiously, Today nifty breached important support level at 5700 and reached low of  5675, Nifty recovered on afternoon on note of finance minister and ended as flat. . So Thursday first resistance for nifty is at 5765 level. The trend of market is weak but  if nifty strongly trades above 5785 it is a positive sign and can expect some reverse and below 5700 be very alert, we may see 5600- 5650 and avoid all longs.

Positional Immediate support for NIFTY is 5670

positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5856 5866 5872 5890 5909 5925 5936 5941 5958 

Pivot 5723

Intraday Supports for Nifty 5703, 5694.46, 5651,5646.9 ,5618.6

Intraday Resistances for nifty 5747, 5780.17, 5770.81, 5799, 5804, 5820, 5847

Trade Calls for 26/07/2013

1. Buy Delta Corp@46.95 sl 46 tgt 50
2. Buy Biocon @299 sl 294 tgt 308
3. Buy Rushil Decor@36.65 sl 36 tgt 39
4. Buy Dena Bank@60.50 sl 59.40 tgt 63
5. Buy Sesa Goa@139.95 sl 137 tgt 144

Intraday Trade calls on 24/07/2013

1. Buy Diamond Power@62.55 sl 61 tgt 65
2. Buy Century Textile@263 sl 259 tgt 272
3. Sell SBI@1860.95 sl 1882 tgt 1830
4. Sell Oriental Bank@176.15 sl 179 tgt 170 

Technical View of nifty on 24/07/2013

Nifty

Nifty is in bull region .So today intra resistance are at 6116,6143 and 6159 level and on down side support are at 6039 and 6012.Below 6000 better avoid longs for short term.

Positional Support for NIFTY 5978 5924 5917 5901 5854 5843 5838 5837 
positional Immediate resistance for NIFTY is 6105.
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 6111.7 6139.8 6195.3 6211.7
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 6043.9 6015.8 5961.4 5945.4

Nifty Futures
NIFTY FUTURE-CMP(6087.0) is currently in BULL trend . Yesterday the trend was BULL WITH LV In Jul series Nifty future shed 22.42 lakh position in Open Interest and this accounts to -18.89 % of Total Open Interest in Jul series.The Nifty Jul series is trading at 9.2 Rs premium to Underlying . In derivative cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net added 19.85 lakh position in open interest and this accounts to 8.27 % of Total Open Interest in all series and cumulatively trading in average premium of 41.72 Rs to Underlying. The open interest is also increasing with trend and premium of share is also increasing indicating bull move
In options activity mainly confined to lower puts even though put/call ratio is high At current price strike the activity is tilted to put side and ratio is still strong but addition of call is slightly increasing at 6100 level Yesterday Nifty Put option has added 861.42 lakh position and Nifty call option has added 625.03 lakh position in open interest on cumulative basis Moneyflow wise Nifty Put option has added Rs 18.97 crore in value and Nifty call option has shed Rs -0.61 crore in value on cumulative basis.
Bank Nifty
Positional Immediate support for BANKNIFTY is 10808 
positional Resistance for BANKNIFTY is 11365 11389 11418 11744 11949 11998 12035 12054 12143 .
Intraday Resistance of BANKNIFTY are 11188.7 11273.1 11245.5 11267.5
Intraday Support of BANKNIFTY are 10985.2 10900.8 10929.6 10907.8