Nifty outlook for 01/08/2013

Today nifty was on slight bear trend, the 50-share Nifty declined 13 points at 5,742 levels. Sensex ended on a flat note after a volatile trading session as investors braced for the US Federal Reserve policy meeting with caution. The 50-share Nifty index, however, ended weak with Bank Nifty bearing the maximum brunt after the Reserve Bank of India turned unexpectedly dovish in the monetary policy review yesterday which made the rupee slide below the 61/dollar. The 30-share Sensex ended lower 2.6 points at 19,345.70 and The broader markets ended lower with mid-caps and small-caps falling nearly 1 per cent on the BSE. The market breadth was negative. Out of 2,370 stocks traded, 1,392 stocks declined while 837 stocks advanced on the BSE.

Overseas investors have pulled out around Rs 18,400 crore across both the equities and debt markets. The outflow of foreign money from the debt market was higher compared to the equities markets during the month. FIIs moved out close to Rs 12,000 crore in debt, while equities saw outflows of about Rs 6,000 crore in July and Indian rupee fell to as low as 61.17 to the dollar in today’s trade on month-end dollar demand from importers. Now the rupee trading at Rs 60.86 compared with previous close of Rs 60.49 against the dollar. This is not good for market, so approach market cautiously, Today nifty breached important support level at 5700 and reached low of  5675, Nifty recovered on afternoon on note of finance minister and ended as flat. . So Thursday first resistance for nifty is at 5765 level. The trend of market is weak but  if nifty strongly trades above 5785 it is a positive sign and can expect some reverse and below 5700 be very alert, we may see 5600- 5650 and avoid all longs.

Positional Immediate support for NIFTY is 5670

positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5856 5866 5872 5890 5909 5925 5936 5941 5958 

Pivot 5723

Intraday Supports for Nifty 5703, 5694.46, 5651,5646.9 ,5618.6

Intraday Resistances for nifty 5747, 5780.17, 5770.81, 5799, 5804, 5820, 5847

Trade Calls for 31/07/2013

1. Buy Ajanta Pharma@984 sl 974 tgt 1025
2. Buy Sun Pharma@575 sl 569 tgt 584
3. Buy Spicejet @ 27.05 sl 26.50 tgt 28.10
4. Buy GPPL@47.10 sl 46.40 tgt 49
5. Buy DCM Shriram Cons@57.45 sl 57 tgt 60

My sincere apologies, I could not update the blog for last two days because of busy schedule. I will start update it from tomorrow. Regards, Nifty investor

BSE Sensex ends 57 pts down; Jet up 17% on FIPB nod hopes

It was a bad start to the August series with the Nifty falling for the third consecutive session Friday, weighed down by PSU banks on rising bad loans and metals stocks.

The BSE Sensex was down 56.57 points to close at 19748.19, and the Nifty fell 21.30 points to end at 5886.20, but the cut was deeper in broader markets. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices were down nearly one percent.

Disappointing earnings continued to hurt the market sentiment with the asset quality concerns impacting public sector lenders and reduction in discretionary spending pinching FMCG companies.

The BSE Metal Index crashed 3.5 percent. Sterlite Industries fell 4.6 percent post June quarter earnings while Coal India and Hindalco were down 4 percent and 7.6 percent.

Among others, Tata Motors dropped over 3 percent while Sun Pharma and Hero MotoCorp gained 2 percent. Ambuja Cements also gained 4 percent after seeing 10.5 percent fall in previous session due to Holcim deal.

Dish TV shares lost more than 8 percent after it reported higher-than-expected loss in first quarter net profit at Rs 30.4 crore as against loss of Rs 32.3 crore in a year ago period and analysts’ forecast of Rs 27 crore, impacted by higher market costs.

SKS Microfinance , Tata Coffee , Biocon and Sterlite Technologies rallied 5-7 percent after strong earnings in April-June quarter.

public sector banks dragged the BSE Bankex 1.4 percent down after weak earnings from Punjab National Bank (down 5 percent), Bank of India (down 4.5 percent) and State Bank of Travancore (fall 0.5 percent).

Deteriorating asset quality has been the major concern for PSU banks. Punjab National Bank ( PNB) reported a muted rise of 2.3 percent year-on-year in its first quarter net profit at Rs 1,275 crore, but its gross NPAs shot up 51 percent to Rs 15,091 crore while net NPAs ballooned 84 percent to Rs 9,060 crore .

Trade Calls for 26/07/2013

1. Buy Delta Corp@46.95 sl 46 tgt 50
2. Buy Biocon @299 sl 294 tgt 308
3. Buy Rushil Decor@36.65 sl 36 tgt 39
4. Buy Dena Bank@60.50 sl 59.40 tgt 63
5. Buy Sesa Goa@139.95 sl 137 tgt 144

Technical outlook of nifty for 26/07/2013

As we predicted earlier nifty reached 5900 on expiry, It was a disappointing end to the July series as Nifty ended the day at 5907, down 83 points while the Sensex closed down 285.92 points at 19804.76. About 843 shares have advanced, 1411 shares declined, and 186 shares are unchanged. ITC , HUL , Wipro were major losers in the Sensex. I feel it is healthy correction after reaching 6100, I feel market may touch 6000  again, if the nifty close above 5935 on friday. So Friday nifty face the first resistance at 5933-36 level, and on down side support are at 5880 and 5850. Now USD/INR trading at 58.98 and crude trading around 105.  So watch market closely and trade accordingly.

Positional Support for NIFTY 5893 5855 5848 5846 5839 

positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5943 5968 6016 
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5959.1 6001.9 6023.4  6039.5
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5855.9  5813.1  5792.8  5777

Intraday Trade calls on 24/07/2013

1. Buy Diamond Power@62.55 sl 61 tgt 65
2. Buy Century Textile@263 sl 259 tgt 272
3. Sell SBI@1860.95 sl 1882 tgt 1830
4. Sell Oriental Bank@176.15 sl 179 tgt 170 

Technical View of nifty on 24/07/2013

Nifty

Nifty is in bull region .So today intra resistance are at 6116,6143 and 6159 level and on down side support are at 6039 and 6012.Below 6000 better avoid longs for short term.

Positional Support for NIFTY 5978 5924 5917 5901 5854 5843 5838 5837 
positional Immediate resistance for NIFTY is 6105.
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 6111.7 6139.8 6195.3 6211.7
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 6043.9 6015.8 5961.4 5945.4

Nifty Futures
NIFTY FUTURE-CMP(6087.0) is currently in BULL trend . Yesterday the trend was BULL WITH LV In Jul series Nifty future shed 22.42 lakh position in Open Interest and this accounts to -18.89 % of Total Open Interest in Jul series.The Nifty Jul series is trading at 9.2 Rs premium to Underlying . In derivative cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net added 19.85 lakh position in open interest and this accounts to 8.27 % of Total Open Interest in all series and cumulatively trading in average premium of 41.72 Rs to Underlying. The open interest is also increasing with trend and premium of share is also increasing indicating bull move
In options activity mainly confined to lower puts even though put/call ratio is high At current price strike the activity is tilted to put side and ratio is still strong but addition of call is slightly increasing at 6100 level Yesterday Nifty Put option has added 861.42 lakh position and Nifty call option has added 625.03 lakh position in open interest on cumulative basis Moneyflow wise Nifty Put option has added Rs 18.97 crore in value and Nifty call option has shed Rs -0.61 crore in value on cumulative basis.
Bank Nifty
Positional Immediate support for BANKNIFTY is 10808 
positional Resistance for BANKNIFTY is 11365 11389 11418 11744 11949 11998 12035 12054 12143 .
Intraday Resistance of BANKNIFTY are 11188.7 11273.1 11245.5 11267.5
Intraday Support of BANKNIFTY are 10985.2 10900.8 10929.6 10907.8

Trade calls for 23/07/2013

1. Buy Apollo Tyres@69.80 sl 68.50 tgt 73
2. Buy Muthoot Finance@97.90 sl 96 tgt 105
3. Buy Canara Bank @319.85 sl 316 tgt 330
4. Buy Yes Bank@423.90 sl 419 tgt 435

Technical Outlook of Nifty for 23/07/2013

Markets ended flat on Monday, amid a volatile trading session, weighed down by profit taking in L&T after the engineering major announced disappointing first quarter earnings. Larsen and Toubro (L&T) tanked 7.46% to Rs 902 after reporting a 12.5% year-on-year (yoy) drop in its net profit at Rs 756 cr for the quarter ended June 30, 2013 (Q1) on account of job mix, lower margin accruals and lower other income. The 30-share Sensex ended up 9 points at 20,159 mark and the 50-share Nifty inched up 3 points at 6,032 levels. 

European markets also red on afternoon,Morning Rupee was stable at 59.4 on morning but afternoon it weakening further and Rupee trades now at 59.72 against the dollar, Market will remain volatile and range bound this week. Market may not sustain above 6100 as earlier i said. We may see 5900-5950 before expiry. FIIs sold 406 crores on cash market, Still FIIs bearish on our market. So be cautious, watch global markets and rupee and trade accordingly ,book the profits on higher levels, dont hold longs. Tomorrow market has immediate support at 6000 and resistance at 6060.

Pivot Point - 6033.42

Intraday supports of Nifty - 6026.38, 6018, 6020, 6002.7, 5973.525, 5942.8

Intraday Resistances of Nifty - 6037.36, 6042.85, 6048.34, 6062.6, 6078, 6093.32, 6122.5 

Nifty Futures and options Analysis:

NIFTY FUTURE-CMP(6043.55) is currently in BULL trend . Yesterday the trend was CONFUSION TREND In Jul series Nifty future shed 11.79 lakh position in Open Interest and this accounts to -8.36 % of Total Open Interest in Jul series.The Nifty Jul series is trading at 11.75 Rs premium to Underlying . In derivative cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net added 6.94 lakh position in open interest and this accounts to 3.15 % of Total Open Interest in all series and cumulatively trading in average premium of 45.85 Rs to Underlying. The open interest is also increasing with trend and premium of share is also increasing indicating bull move.

In options activity mainly confined to lower puts even though put/call ratio is high At current price strike the activity is tilted to call side but addition of Put is slightly increasing at 6000 level Yesterday Nifty Put option has added 841.61 lakh position and Nifty call option has added 635.59 lakh position in open interest on cumulative basis Moneyflow wise Nifty Put option has added Rs 13.58 crore in value and Nifty call option has shed Rs -3.36 crore in value on cumulative basis

Bank Nifty:

Positional Immediate support for BANKNIFTY is 10808 

positional Resistance for BANKNIFTY is 11365 11389 11418 11744 11949 11998 12035 12054 12143 .

Intraday Resistance of BANKNIFTY are 11188.7  11273.1 11245.5  11267.5

Intraday Support of BANKNIFTY are 10985.2  10900.8 10929.6  10907.8

Bank Nifty Futures and Options Analysis:

BANKNIFTY(11099.55) is currently in SIDEWAYS trend . Yesterday the trend was STRONG BULL In Jul series BANKNIFTY future added 0.39 lakh position in Open Interest and this accounts to 2.11 % of Total Open Interest in Jul series.The BANKNIFTY Jul series is trading at 12.6 Rs premium to Underlying . In derivative cumulatively for all series contract BANKNIFTY future net added 2.87 lakh position in open interest and this accounts to 11.96 % of Total Open Interest in all series and cumulatively trading in average premium of 82.25 Rs to Underlying. The open interest is also increasing with trend 

Trade calls for 22/07/2013

1. Buy Yes Bank @ 423 sl 418 tgt 430                                          Target Reached
2. Buy Dewan Housing finance @152.85 sl 150 tgt 156.5           Target Reached
3. Buy eClerx @807 sl 799 tgt 830                                             Stop loss hit
4. Buy Bajaj Holdings@775.15 sl 768 tgt 800                              Target Reached
5. Buy Jain Irrigation@55.30 sl 54 tgt 57             Went up to 56.90, Booked profit at 56.50

Nifty Technical View for next week 22/07/2013 to 26/07/2013

Markets ended flat on friday. Still market in bull region that is above 6000. Nifty is forming Rising Wedge pattern, that you can see the chart below.Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows.So trend reversal may happen above 6100. So investors must be cautious. If we consider 6 month chart for Fibonacci Retracement from High of 6202 to low of 5492, we can observe  Nifty has  retraced 78.6% of the move; precise 78.6% comes at 6050, and so far Nifty made a high of 6066.85 so we were above the 78.6% re tracement. If you consider 3 months chart, it retrace from low of 5573 to 6066.85 i.e 34 points behind to retrace 100%.  RSI is in 58.66 but it gives the indication of weakening by forming a potential Negative Divergence on Daily chart.  Nifty has resistance at 6100, it may go above that level but difficult to sustain . Dont take longs below 6050. Nifty has support at 6000, below 6000 may reach 5950, 5925, 5910 are other supports. Watch global trends and Rupee value, and trade cautiously. 

 Support and Resistances:

List of Stocks in uptrend (19/07/2013)

Script name	Last	5d-move
Metkore Alloys.	11.50	+34.70%
Opto Circuits .	27.95	+26.10%
Manappuram Gen.	12.90	+24.50%
Thirumalai Che.	101.40	+20.00%
Clariant Chemi.	510.00	+19.30%
Finolex Cables Ltd	64.55	+17.60%
Zee Learn Ltd	17.15	+14.90%
GlaxoSmithklin.	5300.10	+12.80%
Jain Irrigatio.	27.60	+11.40%
Godrej Consume.	950.80	+11.30%
D B Corp Ltd	267.00	+11.00%
R S Software (.	141.95	+11.00%
Bombay Rayon F.	220.90	+10.30%
Aditya Birla N.	1161.20	+10.30%

Markets end flat ahead of RIL results, global events

Markets ended on a flat note after surging to nearly 2-month high intra-day as investors preferred to stay on the side-lines ahead of weekend events coupled with earnings announcement.

Market participants are awaiting the outcome of Sunday’s Upper House elections in Japan and Group of 20 finance ministers meeting on Friday and Saturday.

The quarterly results of Reliance Industries, country’s biggest oil refiner, later today also weighed on the sentiments.

The 30-share Sensex gained 21.44 points to end at 20,149.85 and the 50-share Nifty declined 8.85 points at 6,029.20 levels.

G-20 meeting will be crucial in terms of any signs on orchestrated approach to the end of US money-printing, which could help defuse volatility in global markets.

Meanwhile, Asian stocks ended on a negative note pared early gains on back of caution ahead of Japanese elections and after profit at Google Inc and Microsoft Corp trailed estimates.

Market participants expect Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to win Sunday's upper house election which will help his government pursue aggressive reflationary policies.

Japan’s Nikkei declined 1.5% to 14,589, Singapore Straits Times declined 0.15% to 3,213, China’s Shanghai Composite index was down 1.5% at 1,992 while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was tad up 0.08% to 21,362 today.

European shares traded lower. France’s CAC declined 0.3% to 3,916, Germany’s DAX dropped 0.37% to 8,306 while UK’s FTSE rose 0.36% to 6,610.

Among the key sectoral indices capital goods, bankex, power, realty indices dropped while IT, autos and oil & gas sectors gained on theBSE.

The gainers included counters such as TCS gaining 5%, Bajaj Auto surged 3.6%, Hero MotoCorp rose 2.6%, Tata Motors added 2.5%, GAIL gained 2.6% on the BSE.

The laggards were BHEL declined 8%, Jindal Steel dropped 2.7%, Sun Pharma dropped 3.3%, Sterlite Industrial shed 3%, ICICI Bank was down 2.6% on the BSE.

The key notable movers included counters such HDFC dipped 0.5% to Rs 680 after the net interest margin (NIM) of the country’s largest mortgage declined to 3.9% in the quarter ended June 30, 2013 (Q1 FY2014) against 4.2% during March 31, 2013 quarter.

D B Corp surged 7.5% to Rs 266 on reporting a strong 74% year-on-year (yoy) jump in its consolidated net profit at Rs 76 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2013 (Q1 FY2014) on back of strong growth in advertising revenues. The media company had posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 43.65 crore in the same period of previous fiscal.

Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) tanked 8 on back of heavy volumes. Analyst believe that for the foreseeable future, BHEL’s order inflows have peaked out in FY11 (Rs 60,000 crore) as India’s coal constraints will ensure cautious ordering from developers.

The broader markets ended lower with mid-caps and small-caps dropping 0.5-0.6 per cent on the BSE.

The market breadth was negative. Out of 2,487 stocks traded so far, 1,310 stocks declined while 1,033 stocks advanced on the BSE.

Source - Buisness Standard

Today's Nifty Review and Out look of Nifty for 19/07/2013

Markets ended higher on Thursday, amid a range bound trading session, because of short covering in Infosys and buying interest in HDFC Bank after the private bank posted robust June quarter earnings. Capital Goods shares also supported the upmove.

The 30-share Sensex ended up 128 points at 20,128 mark and the 50-share Nifty ended up 65 points at 6,038 levels. The Sensex and Nifty touched an intra-day high of 20,176 mark and 6,051 levels, respectively.

Japan's Nikkei share average rose 1.3% to a new eight-week high on Thursday as the dollar traded above 100 yen after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the timing of when the US central bank would begin winding down its stimulus was flexible. The benchmark Nikkei gained 193.46 points to 14,808.50, the highest closing level since May 22. The broader Topix added 0.7% to 1,222.01. All European markets and US Market are green today. 

The rupee led the declines among emerging Asian currencies today after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed market views that the U.S. central bank expects to start tapering monetary stimulus this year.

Currently Rupee trading at 59.70 and crude trading at 106.38. Today FIIs and DIIs are sellers today. FIIs sold 178.29 crore and DIIs sold 239.41 crores. Last 4 days FIIs sold around 800 crores. So both are not bullish ,investors must approach market cautiously.

So trade accordingly with global trend. Tomorrow nifty has support at 6000 and nifty will move up to 6100-6130 tomorrow but it difficult to sustain above that level.

Supports and Resistances of Nifty (19/07/2013)

Nifty Chart

Bernanke: Fed to begin tapering bond buying later this year

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank anticipates beginning tapering bond purchases later this year but that policy will remain accommodative.

In prepared remarks for his semiannual monetary report before the US House financial services committee, the Fed chairman said, "With unemployment still high and declining only gradually, and with inflation running below the Committee's longer-run objective, a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future."
Bernanke said that if the incoming economic data confirms a strengthening labor market and inflation moving back toward the central bank's 2 percent target, "We anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year." But he emphasized that this plan is not a "preset course."

He also reiterated previous remarks that the central bank could continue to reduce the pace of asset purchases through the first half of next year, ending them around midyear so long as the economy continues to improve and inflation normalizes.Bernanke also sought to draw the distinction between reducing asset purchases and providing accommodative monetary policy, saying "We are relying on near-zero short-term interest rates, together with our forward guidance that rates will continue to be exceptionally low—our second tool—to help maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation for an extended period after asset purchases end, even as the economic recovery strengthens and unemployment declines toward more-normal levels."
Bernanke will deliver his testimony at 10 am, with investors likely to focus more intently on the question and answer session that will follow.
Bernanke's comments on Wednesday echoed statements the central bank chairman made last week when he told attendees at a conference sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research that monetary policy will remain accommodative for the "foreseeable future."
That helped soothe markets worried about the pace at which the Federal Reserve would begin withdrawing monetary stimulus and whether reducing the bond-buying program meant an end to accommodative monetary policy.

In May, Bernanke spooked markets when he told Congress that the central bank could start to reduce its USD 85 billion per month in bond purchase within in the next few meetings, leading markets to anticipate a reduction in bond buying as early as September. He later said that the bond-buying could eventually end by mid-2014.

But while the Fed may be weighing a reduction in its asset purchases, Bernanke has indicated the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates anytime soon given the weak labor market and low inflation.

Inflation remains below the Fed's 2 percent target, and the 7.6 percent unemployment rate is also below the 6.5 percent threshold the Fed set before it would start raising interest rates.

According to the Fed's forecasts from the June meeting, unemployment is expected to be about 7.2 percent to 7.3 percent by the end of 2013 and 6.5 percent to 6.8 percent by the end of 2014.

GDP growth is also expected to be 2.3 percent to 2.6 percent this year before accelerating to 3.0 percent to 3.5 percent next year

Source- moneycontrol

Technical View of Nifty on 18/07/2013

The BSE Sensex ended up 97.50 points or 0.49 percent to close at 19948.73, and the Nifty gained 18.05 points or 0.30 percent to finish at 5973.30 ,amid a volatile trading session, on the back of strong buying interest in FMCG majors Hindustan Unilever and ITC. Today FIIs sold 26.06 crores on cash market and DIIs sold 73.86 crores on cash market. Last three days they sold 610 Crores, no support from FIIs so investors must approach very cautiously and keep eye on federation chairman testimony tonight to get clue of QE 3 future. This will be trigger of opening tomorrow. Still market is in Bull region which is above 5950 but keep eye on global trends and rupee value. Currently Rupee trading at 59.4 versus USD. Tomorrow the first resistance of nifty is 6000. Avoid longs below 5910.

Intraday Resistance of nifty is 5979.08, 5999.81, 6026.33, 6062.86, 6089, 6106

Intraday Support of nifty is 5939.32, 5836.76, 5900.23, 5873.71, 5857, 5842

Markets end higher amid volatility, FMCG leads

Markets ended higher, amid a volatile trading session, on the back of strong buying interest in FMCG majors Hindustan Unilever and ITC.

The Sensex ended up 98 points at 19,927 and the Nifty gained 18 points to end at 5,973.

Asian shares ended mixed on Wednesday ahead of a congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, which could offer clarity on when the U.S. central bank will reduce its stimulus, while the dollar came off a three-week low. The Shanghai Composite and Straits Times ended marginally lower while Nikkei and Hang Seng ended up 0.1-0.3% each.

European markets pared early gains and most indices were trading lower after the Bank of England maintained status quo on key interest rates. CAC-40, DAX and FTSE-100 were down 0.4-0.5% each.

BSE FMCG index was the top gainer among the sectoral indices on the BSE, up 3.4% followed by Consumer Durables, IT, Power, Oil and Gas indices. Most other indices were trading lower with Bankex, Metal, Auto, Realty and Capital Goods indices among the top losers.

Hindustan Unilever was the top Sensex gainer after the stock zoomed 9.9% to end at Rs 685. In the F&O segment there was a significant build-up of long positions and the open interest position was up 28%. ITC ended up 2.3% at Rs 368. Analysts expect volume growth in the cigarette business to boost margins.

Shares of software majors gained on the back of weakening rupee. TCS and Infosys ended up 0.7-1.5% each.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries ended up 1.6% at Rs 915.

Bank shares extended losses after Reserve Bank of India's measures to stem the fall in the rupee and increase in borrowing costs would hurt credit growth and also impact net interest margins. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and SBI ended down 1-2.4% each.

Auto majors Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki ended down 1.9-2.2% each on concerns of sales growth slowdown amid sluggish demand and high cost of auto loans.

Among other stocks, Eicher Motors ended 3.3% higher at Rs 3,899 after the overseas investors have increased their stake in the company by over 3 percentage points during April-June quarter.

Development Credit Bank ended up 0.4% at Rs 50 in opening deals on BSE after its net profit more-than-double to Rs 43 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2013 (Q1FY2014) due to one time treasury gains.

Sabero Organics Gujarat jumped 19% to end at Rs 124 after reporting a net profit of Rs 9.45 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2013 (Q1) on back of strong operational income. The agrochemicals company had net loss of Rs 1.89 crore in a year ago quarter.

Shasun Pharmaceuticals has surged 3.7% to end at Rs 75 after the company said it has successfully completed United States' Food and Drugs Administration (USFDA) and Brazilian ANVISA (National Health Surveillance Agency) inspections of API facility at Puducherry.

The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices ended down 0.2-0.5% each.

Market breadth ended weak 1,289 declines and 1,031 advances on the BSE.

'Relaxing FDI norms show reforms underway to boost growth'

The government move to relax FDI norms in various sectors will bring fresh investments into the country and boost economic growth, industry bodies said today.

The decision to shore up foreign direct investment (FDI) in 12 sectors including telecom and insurance indicates that the much-needed reforms are underway to boost India's growth, they said."We welcome the move and it indicates that reforms are underway. Large number of sectors have either seen an increased in FDI cap or moved under the automatic route from the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) approval," Ficci President Naina Lal Kidwai said.

A high-level meeting, chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, today approved raising FDI limit in the telecom sector to 100 percent. In insurance, it raised the sectoral FDI cap from 26 percent to 49 percent under the automatic route.

In case of PSU oil refineries, commodity exchanges, power exchanges, stock exchanges and clearing corporations, FDI will be allowed up to 49 percent under automatic route, as against current routing of the investment through the Foreign Investment Promotion Board.

Another industry body Assocham said the decision to allow 100 percent FDI in telecom will surely help the sector as it will lead to some overseas investors taking interests in the debt-ridden companies.

Kidwai said: "The reforms demonstrate that there is a desire to make process easier and attract fresh investments. All these decisions are positive and there is an indication that other areas would also be considered."

Although the government has kept the FDI cap in defence sector unchanged at 26 percent, higher foreign investment in 'state-of-the-art' technology manufacturing will now be considered by the Cabinet Committee on Security.

"The government should consider raising the foreign investment limit to 49 percent in defence sector, through automatic route, as this would bring in technology and help in setting up manufacturing base in the country," Assocham Secretary General D S Rawat said.

However, he said, these reforms should be followed by easy rules on the mergers and acquisitions so that much needed consolidation in the sector are facilitated.

Cheering the decision on allowing 49 percent FDI power exchanges, the companies said the move will boost overseas investment in the electricity trading vertical.

"It is a welcome move and in this liberalised scenario we see participation from global exchanges," Pawan Kumar Agarwal, Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Power Exchange India Ltd (PXIL) told PTI.

Devi Raj Singh Executive Director Ernst & Young said: "This decision will have a positive impact on power production in the country as there will be more buyers for the electricity generated."PXIL and IEX are the two power trading exchanges in the country. PTC is in bilateral power trade market as well as on the power exchange.

Source- moneycontrol

Technical View of nifty on 17/07/2013

Nifty was on a bear trend ,RBI stopped the bulls move, Nifty has tested 5911 and closed at 5955. Currently USD/INR trading at 59.01, Crude trading above 100 at 105.67. Today 5911 is hope line for bulls. Bulls can move towards 6100 as long as nifty closes above 5911. Any close below 5890 will bring more bears, They can lead to 5800 or 5710. So  the first resistance for nifty is at 5988-93 level. Next resistance ranges are at 6022-27,6050-55,6075-80,6100-05,6124-29,6140-45,6180-85 levels. On downside first support is at 5923-18 level. Next supports are at 5889-85,5834-30,5800-95,5780-75,5741-36,5722-18,5702-98,5670-65,5623-18,5590-85,5569-65,5536-32,5518-14,5497-92,5477-74,5445-41 level.Nifty is in bull region but better long should be taken only above 5993 level.So today intra resistance are at 5993 and 6027 level and on down side support are at 5911 and 5885.Below 5911 better avoid longs.

Positional Support for NIFTY 5903 5893 5877 5857 5839 5832 5829 5790 

positional Immediate resistance for NIFTY is 6050
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 6021 6076 6071 6087
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5889 5834 5840 5824

Nifty closed at 5955; Oil & gas and FMCG lend support

Markets snapped three-day winning streak to end lower on Tuesday after the central bank's move to reduce rupee liquidity and an increase in short-term rates dashed hopes of rate cut in the near term thereby raising growth concerns. The 30-share Sensex provisionally ended down 147 points at 19,887 and the 50-share Nifty closed 68 points lower at 5,963.

The midcap index suffers too, smaller banks shed anywhere between 5 to 10 percent.

The surprise and aggressive move by the RBI makes big brokerages nervous about India's growth prospects. Morgan Stanley expects a 75 to 100 bps downside to their GDP estimate of 6 percent, Bank of America Merrill Lynch cuts its FY14 GDP growth forecast to 5.5 percent.
Index heavyweights ITC and Reliance Industries gained 2 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Bharti Airtel shares rallied 2.5 percent on the hopes the government may approve a 100 percent foreign direct investment in telecom.

Tata Motors and Tata Power too rebounded in afternoon trade, rising one percent each.Meanwhile, ONGC , Hindustan Unilever , TCS and Sun Pharma gained 0.7-1.8 percent.

NIIT Technologies , after its first quarter earnings, says that the good signs of recovery is expected in the US and also strong traction is seen in domestic market. Its first quarter consolidated net profit fell to Rs 53.2 crore from Rs 56.6 crore reported in previous quarter.

Technical View of nifty on 16/07/2013

Nifty was on a bull trend and closed at 6030 level. So today the first resistance for nifty is at 6060-65 level. Next resistance ranges are at 6088-93,6124-29,6140-45,6180-85 levels. On downside first support is at 6000-95 level. Next supports are at 5972-67,5937-32,5922-17,5905-00,5885-80,5864-59,5834-30,5800-95,5780-75,5741-36,5722-18,5702-98,5670-65,5623-18,5590-85,5569-65,5536-32,5518-14,5497-92,5477-74,5445-41 level.Nifty is in bull region but be alert below 5995 as short weakness if nifty trades below this level.So today on upside intra resistance are at 6065 and 6093 level and on down side support are at 5995 and 5967.Below 5995 be very alert and avoid longs.
Positional Support for NIFTY 5905 5886 5868 5861 5832 5828 5816 5783 
positional Immediate resistance for NIFTY is 6050.
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 6062.3 : 6088.5 : 6147.8 : 6164.2
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5999.3 : 5973.1 : 5914.9 : 5898.9

Technical View of nifty on 15/07/2013

Global markets are lifted nifty on Thursday. Infosys and other IT packs lifted nifty, market reached the target 6000 on Friday, FIIs bought 644.82 crores on cash market, Bernanke’s comments about the need for a more accommodative monetary policy has raised hopes about the continued availability of funds for investment into the emerging economies like India. Currently USD trading at 59.93, Crude trading above 100 at 106.17. Relative Strength Index is giving positive clues on weekly, daily chart, suggesting underlying strength in the Nifty.Now bulls have to see two closes above 6020 and then can move to 6110. On the downside now the weekly pivot 5933 is strong support. Any close below 5890 will bring more bear.

Positional Support for NIFTY 5905 5879 5864 5854 5831 5826 5786 5777 

positional Immediate resistance for NIFTY is 6031

Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 6055 6093 6125 6142

Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5962 5924 5893 5877

Keys to watch next week:

After Infosys Ltd kicked off the April-June earnings reporting season on a solid footing, investors will now look forward to blue-chip earnings like Reliance Industries Ltd and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd next week.

Bank earnings will also be important with HDFC Bank Ltd due to report results on Wednesday, followed by Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd and Axis Bank Ltd on Thursday.

In terms of economic data, investors will also be looking at June consumer price inflation data and May industrial output due later in the day and wholesale price-based inflation data for June on Monday.

Global events will also be important, with a slew of economic data through the week from China, while Federal Reserve chairman will appear before the US Congress on July 17-18, and G20 finance ministers and central banks will meet in Moscow on July 19-20.

FII outflows slowdown as Bernanke comforts markets

Selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in Indian equities have receded in July so far after they dumped shares worth about Rs10,500 crore in June. Analysts said while the stability in the rupee has come as a relief to these investors, the US Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke’s comments on Wednesday about the ‘necessity’ of the stimulus programme for the recovery of the US economy is speculated to encourage FIIs to invest in emerging market equities such as India again.

So far, in July, FIIs have been net sellers at Rs 290 crore, but they have been nibbling at stocks in the last coupe of days.

“FIIs have some comfort about the rupee stabilising at levels of Rs 59-60 against the dollar and about the drop in gold imports in June. So, we are not expecting a major sell-off from this point onwards,” said Chokkalingam G, executive director and chief investment officer at Centrum Broking.

Since January of this year, FIIs have pumped in close to Rs 70, 397 crore into the Indian equity market.

FIIs had turned sellers in June due to the sharp decline seen in the rupee levels. With the improvement seen in the US economy, the dollar strengthened causing currencies across the emerging market spectrum to decline in June. The rupee has fallen by more than 10 per cent since June 11 this year.

Improving jobs data and lower inflation in the US were seen as indicators of a recovering US economy leading investors to believe that the QE3 would be phased out sooner than anticipated causing funds to flow away from emerging markets back into developed markets. Emerging economies had been the biggest beneficiary of the QE3, US’ bond-buying programme worth $85 billion.

However, Bernanke’s comments about the need for a more accommodative monetary policy has raised hopes about the continued availability of funds for investment into the emerging economies like India.

Analysts said that the ‘hot’ money coming in through the programme was now flowing away from asset classes such as bonds, commodities and even away from economies like Brazil, Russia and China. India, along with developed economies, are the beneficiaries of these outflows.

“There is growing confidence among investors that the Indian economy would do much better now that the economy and interest rate-cycle seems to be bottoming out,” said Saurabh Mukherjea, CEO – institutional equities at Ambit Capital.

“With the economy and the rate-cycle bottoming out, FIIs now see India as a stable economy. They would continue to buy into Indian equities, in stable high quality Indian stocks,” he added.

Market participants expect FIIs to increase allocation only if the government takes measures to ensure the rupee does not slide further. Any instability in the rupee-levels could further worry investors causing funds to flow out, they said.

For now, funds are unlikely to move out of the Indian equity markets. But the quantum of money that could find its way into the economy would depend largely on government reform actions and the performance of companies in the upcoming results season.

Markets trading near day highs, banks lead

Markets continue to trade near their day highs in late morning trade led by bank shares after comments by the US Fed allayed fears of soon-than-expected easing of monetary stimulus measures and gains in the Indian rupee.

At 11:30AM, the 30-share Sensex was up 417 points at 19,711 after touching an intra-day high of 19,717 so far and the 50-share Nifty rose 129 points at 5,945 levels after hitting an intra-day high of 5,946.

Stocks in Asia were also trading higher after on back of US Fed's comments that it would continue its easy monetary policy in the near term. In Asia, Nikkei rebounded from the day lows and was up 0.2%. Singapore Straits Times, China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 1.7-3.2% each.

The Metal Index was the top gainer among the sectoral indices on the BSE, followed by Bankex, Capital Goods, Power, Realty, Oil and Gas, Auto and IT indices up 1.3-2.9% each.

Financial shares were among the top Sensex gainers on bargain hunting at lower levels after recent losses. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC and SBI were up 2.4-3.4% each.

Software major Infosys was up 1.3% ahead of its first quarter earnings on Friday. TCS was up 2%.

Oil shares rebounded today after correcting on Wednesday as the finance ministry told the petroleum ministry to consider putting a cap on the increase in domestic gas price when the pricing formula suggested by the Rangarajan panel is implemented in 2014.

Tata Steel wsa up 2% after the company said its saleable steel production increased by 23% yoy to 2.14 MT and sales increased by 26% yoy to 2.01 MT, higher than analyst estimates of 1.90 MT.

Other Sensex gainers include, ITC and L&T

Shasun Pharmaceuticals has rallied 12% to Rs 81.40, extending its previous day’s 20% surge, ahead of a board meeting on Saturday, July 13, to review the operations of the company.

IndusInd Bank has moved higher by 4% to Rs 515 after reporting a better-than-expected 42% year-on-year (yoy) growth in net profit at Rs 335 crore for the quarter ended June 2013 on back of healthy growth in interest income and improved margins.

The broader markets traded higher with mid-caps and small-caps gaining nearly 1 per cent on the BSE.

The market breadth was positive. Out of 1,258 stocks traded so far, 576 stocks advanced while 232 declined on the BSE.

Hindalco rallies as Novelis hikes product prices

Hindalco Industries has rallied nearly 6% to Rs 104 on NSE after its overseas subsidiary Novelis Inc. raised the price of all automotive aluminum sheet products sold in Europe.

According to Bloomberg reports, Novelis Inc. raised the price of all automotive aluminum sheet products sold in Europe by 160 euros ($205) a metric ton, with immediate effect.

The change applies to all new orders not covered by current supply agreements, added report.

The stock opened at Rs 99.90 and has seen a combined 4.48 million shares changing hands on the counter till noon deals on NSE and BSE.

Rupee at over one-week high in opening trade

The rupee rallied to a more than one-week high and bond yields fell on Thursday on easing worries about selling by foreign investors after comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke on US stimulus were seen as more dovish.

Bernanke said on Wednesday a highly accommodative monetary policy would be needed for the foreseeable future, sparking hopes any tapering of the asset purchase programme may not be necessarily close.

The partially convertible rupee was at 59.38/39 per dollar at 9:01 am, after opening at 59.32, its strongest since July 2. The rupee closed at 59.66/67 on Wednesday.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield opened down 7 basis points at 7.45%.

Technical View of nifty on 11/07/2013

 Nifty was on a bear trend and closed at 5816 level. So today the first resistance for nifty is at 5837-42 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5858-62,5893-98,5910-15,5926-31,5964-69,6010-15,6050-53,6090-95 levels. On downside first support is at 5795-90 level. Next supports are at 5774-70,5741-36,5722-18,5702-98,5670-65,5623-18,5590-85,5569-65,5536-32,5518-14,5497-92,5477-74,5445-41 level.So today a move below 5770 is not good and On upside intra resistance are at 5842 and 5862.Above 5862 we expect slight bullishness. 
Positional Support for NIFTY 5771 5745
positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5836 5847 5854 5858 5890 5898 5929 .
Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5858.6 : 5893.4 : 5931.7 : 5947.7
Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5774.8 : 5740 : 5702.9 : 5687.2

Markets end lower on profit taking ahead of Q1 earnings

Markets ended lower on Wednesday, amid weak European cues, as investors turned cautious and booked profits ahead of the release of Fed minutes later today and Infosys' first quarter earnings on Friday.

The 30-share Sensex ended down 145 points at 19,294 and the 50-share Nifty ended down 42 points at 5,817.

The rupee was trading tad higher at 60 versus its previous close of 60.14 as dollar demand from importers was offset by selling from foreign banks.

Japan's benchmark share index, the Nikkei, ended 0.4% lower, amid a volatile trading session, after China's dismal trade data raised worries of a slowdown in the world's largest economy and the yen firmed up against the US dollar. However, shares in China recovered from their day lows to end up 2.7% on expectations that its central bank may announce easy monetary policy to boost growth after exports declined for the first time since January 2012. In June, exports stood at $ 174.32 billion and imports totalled $ 147.19 billion with a trade surplus of $ 27.13 billion, according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs today.Among other shares in the region, Hang Seng gained 1.1% and Straits Times ended up 0.4%.

Stocks in Europe were marginally down as investors turned cautious ahead of the minutes of the Fed meet last month to be released later today and on comments from an ECB policymaker on Tuesday that the bank plans to keep interest rates low for more than a year. The CAC-40, DAX and FTSE-100 were down 0.3-0.4% each.

The BSE Oil and Gas index was the top sectoral loser on the BSE down 1.8% followed by Auto, Realty, Capital Goods, Power, Metal and FMCG indices.

Reliance Ind ended down nearly 2% at Rs 856 on talk that the government has directed them to supply outstanding gas at the old rate of $4.2 per mmBtu. PSU exploration major ONGC ended down 1.8% down at Rs 297.

FMCG shares also witnessed profit taking after recent gains. ITC ended down 0.4% while Hindustan Unilever ended 1.6% down after the stock turned ex-dividend today. The company paid a final dividend of Rs 6/ per equity share for the last fiscal.

Other Sensex losers include, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors, Mahindra and Mahindra.

Software shares such as TCS, Infosys and Wipro were among the top Sensex gainers.

Among other shares, IndusInd Bank ended 1.2% lower after gross non-performing assets (NPAs) or the bad loans of the bank in the first quarter rose to 1.06% from 0.97% a year earlier.

Shares of MMTC ended locked in 5% lower circuit at Rs 68.45. The stock of state-owned trading company has tanked nearly 70% in past one month from Rs 218 on June 12, 2013 after the Government of India (GoI) fixed the share sale price at Rs 60 per share, a huge discount to prevailing market price.

Lupin ended up 2.7% after FIIs hiked stake in the company by 2% in the first quarter.

In the broader market, the BSE Mid-cap index ended down 0.4% and the Small-cap index ended flat.

Market breadth ended marginally weak with 1,168 losers and 1,146 gainers on the BSE.

Technical View of nifty on 10/07/2013

Nifty was on a bull trend and closed at 5859 level. So today the first resistance for nifty is at 5890-95 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5912-16,5928-33,5954-58,5970-74,6010-15,6050-53,6090-95 levels. On downside first support is at 5829-23 level. Next supports are at 5805-00,5782-78,5760-55,5743-38,5706-01,5660-55,5623-18,5590-85,5569-65,5536-32,5518-14,5497-92,5477-74,5445-41 level.So today a move below 5823 is not good and On upside intra resistance are at 5892 and 5916.Above 5892 we expect slight bullishness. 

Positional Support for NIFTY 5831 5822 5790 5775 5745 

positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5885 5906 5933 

Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5888 5912 5958 5974 5990

Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5829 5805 5760 5744 5729

Markets gain on Rupee measures by regulators

Markets ended higher on Tuesday, amid firm global cues, after the Reserve Bank of India stepped to prevent further fall in the rupee. The recovery in the rupee also boosted market sentiment.

The 30-share Sensex closed up 115 points at 19,439 and the Nifty  gained 47 points to close at 5,859 for the day.

The broader markets had a strong session in which both the mid and smallcap indices advanced 0.7%, outperforming the BSE benchmark index which closed with a 0.6% gain.

The rupee rallied on Tuesday from a record low in the previous session after regulators restricted speculative trading in currency derivatives, although the measures are expected to provide only brief respite for the currency. The rupee was trading at 60.40 to the US dollar compared to its previous close of Rs 60.61.

Late on Monday the Reserve Bank of India banned banks from proprietary trading in domestic currency futures and options, while Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) doubled the margin requirement on the domestic dollar-rupee forward trade.

The steps are the latest by regulators to curb speculative trading, which would pare short positions in the rupee, after some bankers said they had been discreetly asked last month by the RBI to trim intraday open positions.

Global stocks witnessed a firm trend on the back of strong US jobs data last week and encouraging second quarter earnings from Alcoa, the largest aluminium producer in the US.

European shares firmed up today after Greece secured the latest 6.8 billion euro installment of its bailout boosted market sentiment. The CAC-40, DAX and FTSE-100 were up 0.7-1%.

Stocks in Asia also ended higher with Japan's benchmark Nikkei ended up 2.6%, near a six-week high, after the yen weakened against the US dollar. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.4%, Hang Seng rose 0.5% and Straits Times ended 0.7% higher.

Back home, all the sectoral indices were in the green for the day. The top gainers were Consumer Durables, Power, Realty, Capital Goods, Health Care and Bankex indices gaining 1.2-2%. Oil & Gas index up 0.04% was the least gainer.

The movers among the sensex-30 were Sun Pharma which closed up 3.6% after the company had recommended issue of bonus shares to existing shareholders in the ratio of 1:1, yet to announce record date for the same.

BHEL, Bajaj Auto, Sterlite, Dr Reddys Lab, L&T, NTPC, HDFC Bank, Wipro, SBI, Cipla and Infosys which added 1-2.2% were the other notable gainers.

HDFC, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, Hindalco and Tata Power up 0.5-0.7% too closed in the green.

Among the ones in the red were Jindal Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, ONGC, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti Suzuki and Bharti Airtel closing lower by 0.5-1.9%.

The market breadth was positive on the BSE. 1,306 stocks advanced while 1,014 stocks declined.

Smart Moves

Strides Arcolab dipped 6% to Rs 789, on reports that the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion has put on hold the company’s unit sell plan on concerned that ownership of critical cancer drug-making facilities will fall into foreign hand

Karnataka Bank moved higher by 6% to Rs 115 after the private sector bank said it has signed Memorandum of Understanding with Reliance Capital for financing the micro, small and medium enterprises through co-financing arrangement.

Steel Strips Wheels soared 9.5% to Rs 149 after the company said it has bagged European Patent for innovative design concept in semi-full face wheels.

Aptech rallied 7% to Rs 62.55 after the company said it has received the shareholders approval for share buyback proposal through postal ballot.

Havells India rallied nearly 5% to Rs 782, after a broking firms upgraded the stock with Buy rating.

Business Standard:Are FIIs trapped in the Indian market?

Are the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) trapped in the Indian equity markets? Owning 43.4% of publicly held shares, they seem to be stuck with no easy exit route. Along with the free float (publicly held shares or non-promoter holding) overall holding by FIIs In the Indian markets is also at an all-time high of 20.5%.

Pumping in nearly $124 billion (equivalent to nearly 43% of foreign exchange reserves of India) in the last decade, FIIs managed to withdraw only $1.6 billion out of it in June 2013. In fact, June 2013 was the first time in the year that the FIIs withdrew money from the equity markets. And over half of the $124 billion that has come in the country has made its entry in the last three years. 

Since 2010,world markets have been on a ‘high’ thanks to the excess dosage of liquidity being pumped in by central banks across the world. India too received its share of the liquidity both in the equity as well as debt markets. Some of the better known global funds have preferred staying away from the country and leaving it to new ETF (Exchange Traded Funds) players to invest in India. These funds went overboard in investing in select index based stocks, which it believed were the most liquid and had reasonably sound fundamentals.

Their buying took these stocks to ridiculous valuations resulting in most of the other investors selling it to them. As a result, FIIs now own 43.4 per cent of non-promoters shares in the market. The market during the last three years has not been able to touch a new high despite the huge amount of inflow, only because most of the other players were selling when FIIs were buying. Generally, investors participate in a rally along with the FIIs, but post the Lehman crisis there was little leverage and interest in the market.

Volume shifted from the cash market to the options market which was the playground for retail and high net worth individuals. June 2013 saw cash trading contributing only 5.94% of the overall volume on the market.
Markets in June 2013 fell on fears that US might close the liquidity tap.

Markets across the globe came crashing down and paused only when bad set of economic numbers meant that liquidity flow would continue. However, Indian markets failed to recover on account of various domestic issues. Money continued to flow out, both from the equity and debt markets.

While the debt markets saw nearly Rs 31,584 crore leave the shores, equity markets witnessed only Rs 9,318 crore being withdrawn. Outflow from the debt market was nearly six times the average inflow, outflow from the equity markets were in line with the average inflow. Yet the fall in prices on the equity markets was much higher than the appreciation caused by the inflow on the same quantum of funds. The only reason for a higher fall is poor liquidity which resulted in higher ‘impact’ cost on the share prices. Had there been more liquidity in the Indian markets, more money could have easily moved out.

Taking out huge amount of money needs a good bullish market. A weak market will only push prices lower,making an exit all the more difficult. FIIs seem to have realised that they are trapped in the Indian equity market. Thus, despite world markets and Indian market recovering to a certain extent in the last fortnight, FIIs are regular sellers, selling whenever they can. The impact of this is seen in the rupee which keeps on depreciating with every sale, only adding to their loses. A short term trade for the FIIs has now become a long term investment.

Technical View of Nifty (09/07/2013)

One more Gap in last session. In past 6 trading sessions, Nifty remained range bound, although with high volatility, but on closing basis, from last six sessions, it is moving clueless. Range is of 100 points upside is capped at 5900 and downside 5800. Trading such markets becomes a challenging job for traders, intraday players where anyways out of the market on day ends. Whether we like or not, momentum is in favor of bear camp, but on closing basis, Nifty gave Hammer kind of candlestick, which means support from lower levels and that too near 5800.Nifty was on a bear trend and closed at 5811 level. So the first resistance for nifty is at 5840-42 level. Next resistance ranges are at 5860-65, 5886-90, 5905-10, 5925-30,5960-65,5980-86,6020-22,6050-53,6590-95 levels. On downside first support is at 5786-82 level. Next supports are at 5760-55,5718-13,5697-92,5660-55,5623-18,5590-85,5569-65,5536-32,5518-14,5497-92,5477-74,5445-41 level. So today a move below 5800 enter a short position with stop loss above 5820, with initial target of 5770. If market moves above 5835 than it can move up 5860 to cover the gap. Net longs can only be open above 5890 levels. Still 5760 seems good support ,To confirm bearish undertone we need close below 5760 levels. Currently Rupee trading at 60.74 versus US Dollar and crude trading above 100 at 102.47 so now bull hopes on upcoming results, RBI and reforms by the UPA government. So approach market with cautious. 

Positional Support for NIFTY 5778 5765 5742 

positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5845 5850 5855 5880 5910 5935 .

Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5860 5905 5928 5940

Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5761 5719 5699 5683

Bank Nifty gives small real candles with big spikes indicating high volatility. But, we see Bank Nifty moving further lower, to confirm our view Bank Nifty should stay below 11350. Fresh shorts can be open below 11275 with stop above 11350. We expect Bank Nifty testing 11000 levels.

Technical view on nifty ( 08/07/2013)

Nifty gave star candle pattern on Friday, which has a potential to turn Evening Star, if Monday market gives weaker close. Nifty is still holding above its 200 day moving average. Nifty has already created major gap between 5700 and 5750 which is not filled yet, again on in last trading session (Friday) nifty created one more gap from 5848.20 to 5889, but in an intraday partly gap was filled and now there is gap of only 10 points i.e. from 5848 to 5858. RSI on daily basis is giving initial signs of weakness, and going one degree lower, on hourly time frame we can see Negative Divergence setting in. Nifty has a potential to turn weak from Monday onwards. On the way down, Nifty has many supports coming in to hold the prices, so it is less likely that we get smooth downward rally. trader has to keep watch on 5850 level, than it is the first sign of weakness, and opens the door till 5750, and subsequently how market unfolds. In these market, traders has to play smartly, as current phase will not allow you to churn money quickly. Rupee trading at 61.07 versus US Dollar and crude trading above 100 at 103.49 so now bull hopes on upcoming results and reforms by the UPA government. Still 7750 seems good support. Bears can active only below 5750. Below 5750 bears can lead to 5710 or 5690. So Monday the first resistance for nifty is at 5885-90 level. The trend is slightly in bull side but a move below 5832 is not good. On upside intra resistance are at 5890, 5910 and 5930.

Positional Support for NIFTY 5850 5830 5820 5783 5745 5742 

Positional Resistance for NIFTY is 5914 5936

Intraday Resistance of NIFTY are 5900 5930 5984 6000

Intraday Support of NIFTY are 5835 5804 5750 5740