Market outlook for the next week 22/09/2014 to 26/09/2014

Markets managed to eke out modest gains of over one tenth of a percent, which took Sensex and Nifty above crucial levels of 27,050 and 8,100 on the indices for the passing week. The coming week is expected to be volatile one for Indian equity markets on account of F&O expiry, which is scheduled to take place on Thursday, September 25, 2014.

Meanwhile, market-participants, as usual would continue to track the momentum of rupee, FII trend. Besides, they would also track latest updates on monsoon. According to latest weather report, monsoon is likely to start withdrawing from the country within three-four days, more than a fortnight later than normal. However, with the withdrawal now in sight, the season's rain shortfall is expected to remain above 10%, making it a 'deficient' monsoon this year.

Besides, Power stocks would remain in focus for the coming week after Supreme Court on Friday restrained the CBI from filing any charge sheet or closure report in coal scam cases till it decides whether the investigating agency deputed director Ranjit Sinha to deal with the probe and prosecution for coal block allocation scam. Even Public sector Oil marketing companies (OMCs) stocks could be in limelight as amidst expectation that the fuel prices will be cut soon, which will be the first downward revision in over five years.

On the global front, market-participants would be eyeing slew of economic data from world’s largest economy US, starting from Existing home sale data on September 22, followed by New Home Sales data, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims and finally, GDP data on September 26, 2014.

Developments from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's US tour from September 27-30 will be closely watched. Narendra Modi will meet US President Barack Obama at the White House on 29-30 September 2014. The two leaders will discuss a range of issues of mutual interest in order to expand and deepen the US-India strategic partnership. They will discuss ways to accelerate economic growth, bolster security cooperation, and collaborate in activities that bring long-term benefits to both countries and the world. 

During the week, Nifty made a high of 8160.90, low of 7925.15 and finally closed at 8121.45 with a weekly gain of 15.95 points. For the coming week, 7977 followed by 7833 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while it may face resistance at 8213 and further at 8305 levels.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQUITY

NIFTY- PIVOT POINT         8069

MAJOR SUPPORT          7977 7833 7742

MAJOR RESISITANCE   8213 8305 8449

SENSEX-PIVOT POINT      26934

MAJOR SUPPORT        26621 26151 25837

MAJOR RESISTANCE   27404 27717 28187

WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-CURRENCY-USD-INR

PIVOT POINT 61.03

MAJOR SUPPRT 60.70 60.48 60.15

MAJOR RESISTANCE 61.24 61.57 61.78

MARKET EVENTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK

SEP 22 CHINA-MFG PMI

SEP 23 PMI MFG DATA OF US, JAPAN & EURO ZONE 

SEP 24 US NEW HOME SALES, GERMANY BUSINESS CLIMATE DATA

SEP 25 CONSUMER DURABLE ORDERS-US, EURO ZONE MONEY SUPPLY(M3)

SEP 26 US GDP DATA

Stocks in downtrend 16/09/2014

Stocks in down trend

Script name	Last	5d-move
	386.00	-54.50%
Shilpi Cable T.	60.95	-45.70%
Birla Cotsyn I.	0.10	-33.30%
Clutch Auto Ltd	26.00	-19.50%
REI Agro Ltd	3.00	-17.80%
Dhunseri Tea &.	153.35	-17.10%
HMT Ltd	35.05	-17.10%
Trigyn Technol.	49.30	-16.30%
Arvind Remedies	50.85	-15.90%
	32.40	-15.70%
Subex Ltd	9.25	-15.50%
Varun Shipping.	8.00	-15.40%
Axis IT&T Ltd	112.20	-15.30%
Andhra Cements Ltd	11.15	-15.30%

Stocks in uptrend 16/09/2014

Script name	Last	5d-move
Mastek Ltd	306.45	+40.70%
Shyam Telecom Ltd	43.05	+28.20%
Bharati Shipyard Ltd	45.50	+25.90%
D-Link India Ltd	128.40	+23.40%
Khaitan Electr.	72.55	+16.50%
Onelife Capita.	297.45	+14.50%
Cox & Kings (I.	336.25	+12.90%
Sundaram Finance Ltd	1162.10	+12.70%
Microsec Finan.	81.60	+12.30%
Alchemist Ltd	55.70	+12.00%
Ashapura Minec.	79.90	+12.00%
Castrol India Ltd	438.80	+11.50%
Bhushan Steel Ltd	129.55	+10.90%
Avanti Feeds Ltd	1565.70	+10.90%

Market Summary for the day :16/09/2014

Sensex, Nifty fall most in 1-1/2 months ahead of Fed outcome:

Sensex and Nifty fell over 1 percent, posting its biggest single-day decline in 1-1/2 months as blue-chips slipped on caution ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, while foreign portfolio sales also weighed on sentiment.

Domestic equity markets extended previous session’s losses and ended down with sharp cut of over 1.20% on Tuesday, which dragged both Sensex and Nifty below the psychologically crucial 27,000 and 8,000 levels respectively. Absence of any positive triggers at home front combined with global anxiety as investors braced for a possible hawkish shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy stance in its two-day policy meeting, which begins later in the day, mainly took a toll on buying activity. Though, markets started on subdued note, the selling pressure which accentuated during the second half of trading session, i.e. post the start of European markets, mainly pushed markets near day’s low point. Meanwhile, broader indices diving deeper into the gut, nursed heavier losses of around three percent by close of trade.

The sentiments were on pessimistic note after RBI’s governor, underscored that there were no chances of RBI slashing rates at the month-end monetary policy announcement, citing that Inflation in Indian economy, was still high and hence there was no point in slashing interest rates since this would further build on to inflationary pressures. 

Traders were seen piling positions in FMCG and IT while selling was witnessed in Realty, PSU and Consumer Durables sector stocks. In scrip specific development, Colgate-Palmolive was trading firm after a foreign brokerage firm upgraded the stock to outperform from underperform. Marico was trading in green touching fresh 52-week high 

after the foreign brokerage firm added the company in its top pick in the mid-cap consumer space.

On the global front, the Asian markets were trading mostly in red while the European market was too trading on pessimistic note. The market breadth on BSE was negative in the ratio of 793:2115 while 87 scrips remained unchanged.

Sensex is currently trading at 26595.85, down by 220.71 points after trading in a range of 26550.29 and 26861.29. 

There were 8 stocks advancing against 22 stocks declining on the index. The broader indices were trading in red; the BSE Mid cap index was down by 2.69%, while Small cap index down by 3.21%.The gaining sectoral indices on the BSE were FMCG up by 0.12%, IT up by 0.07% while, Realty down by 2.62%, PSU down by 2.54%, Consumer Durables down by 2.41%, Power down by 2.40%, Oil & Gas down by 2.18% were the losing indices on BSE.

The top gainers on the Sensex were Dr. Reddy’s Lab up by 1.45%, Sun Pharma Industries up by 0.62%, Bharti Airtel up by 0.57%, Infosys up by 0.55% and Hero MotoCorp up by 0.45%. On the flip side, Tata Steel down by 3.25%, ONGC down by 2.63%, Axis Bank down by 2.57%, Tata Motors down by 2.54% and Tata Power down by 2.53% were the top losers.

The European markets were trading in red; Germany’s DAX was down by 42.86 points or 0.44% to 9,616.77, France’s CAC was down 26.83 points or 0.61% to 4,401.80 while, UK’s FTSE 100 was down by 19.32 points or 0.28% to 6,784.89.

TECHNICAL PARAMETERS OF NIFTY

Technically on Nifty, RSI was at 48, MACD Positive below Signal line; India VIX was at 13~, Nifty closed below its both short term moving averages like 5 DMA (8052), 20 DMA (8014) but above its medium and long term ie. 50 DMA (7815) & 200 DMA (6938) which all indicates that market is consolidating on account of profit booking in some of the leading blue chip stocks but is still intact.

Stocks in down trend 12/09/2014

Script name	Last	5d-move
	419.05	-46.70%
Nakoda Textile.	3.30	-16.30%
Kesar Terminal.	264.00	-12.80%
Shasun Pharmac.	189.80	-12.40%
Hubtown	99.75	-11.70%
Karuturi Global Ltd	1.60	-11.60%
Raj Rayon Ltd	0.45	-11.10%
Man Industries.	57.60	-9.76%
Indosolar Ltd	6.35	-8.82%
	628.20	-8.75%
	140.45	-8.43%
Eros Internati.	240.85	-8.40%
Balrampur Chin.	62.50	-8.40%
ADF Foods Ltd	70.40	-8.09%

Stocks in uptrend 12/09/2014

Script name	Last	5d-move
NELCO Ltd	90.65	+45.90%
Autolite (India) Ltd	33.60	+41.40%
Archies Ltd	26.75	+35.40%
Shilpi Cable T.	132.60	+34.70%
Gujarat State .	94.70	+33.50%
Manali Petroch.	15.85	+32.40%
Value Industries Ltd	13.10	+31.80%
Talbros Automo.	115.00	+29.20%
Sah Petroleums Ltd	35.45	+28.80%
Jocil Ltd	165.05	+28.40%
Logix Microsys.	22.10	+28.10%
Siyaram Silk M.	785.60	+27.90%
Mukand Engineers Ltd	42.20	+27.80%
Indraprastha M.	59.75	+26.90%