Sunday, December 8, 2013

MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT WEEK 09/12/2013 to 14/12/2013

In the coming week, markets would first react to the results of state assembly election, which declared on December 8.
The strong showing for the key opposition party (BJP) in four of the five states, namely
Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In short, High volatility is expected next week as the market will react
sharply to the verdict of assembly elections in key states.
Investors in the coming data heavy week would be awaiting the release of October’s Index of IIP data, which is scheduled to
release on December 12. However, the number is not expected to throw up any positive surprise as output of eight core sector
industries having a combined weight of about 38% in the IIP, contracted by 0.6% in October due to poor showing by coal, oil
and gas sectors. Further, release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on the same day, i.e., December 12 also will be closely
tracked by the investors. The provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general Consumer Price Index (CPI)
(Combined) for October 2013 accelerated to 10.09%, higher than expectation of over 10%.
Besides, proceedings of the ongoing winter session of Parliament would be closely watched by the investors, where there a total
of 29 bills for consideration and passage, 5 new bills for introduction and 2 bills listed for introduction, consideration and
passing. The winter session of parliament began on 5 December 2013 and it will possibly be the last session before the General
Elections in 2014. Other important bills like the Judicial Standards and Accountability Bill, 2012, the Insurance Laws
(Amendment) Bill, 2008, the Indo-Bangla land boundary agreement discussion and voting on supplementary grants for both
railways and general are all pending. The challenge before the UPA is to pack all of these in 12 working days.
On the global front, investors would first await the release of US monthly jobs data, due to release after Indian market closing on
Friday, which could give some cues on the likely timing of the Fed taper. Besides, investors in the coming week would be eyeing
few other economic data from the world’s largest economy, starting from Jobless Claims data on Retail sales data on December
12, followed by Producer Price Index data on December 13.

TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQ
NIFTY PIVOT POINT            6237
NIFTY SUPPORT              6173 6086 6022
NIFTY RESISTANCE         6324 6387 6474
SENSEX PIVOT POINT         20945
SENSEX SUPPORT              20725 20453 20233

SENSEX RESISTANCE         21217 21437 21709

MAJOR EVENTS FOR NEXT WEEK
9 DEC           STATE ELECTION OUTCOMEIMPACT
10 DEC         NO MAJOR EVENTS
11 DEC         NO MAJOR EVENTS
12 DEC        JOB LESS CLAIM, RETAIL SALES,
                    CPI/WPI INFLATION DATA

13 DEC          PMI/IIP DATA-INDIA

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