The equity market remains shut on Monday, 14 April on account of Dr. Ambedkar Jayanti and on Friday, 18 April on account of Good Friday. Macroeconomic data, trend in investment by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), trend in global markets, trend in other global emerging markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement hold key.The coming holiday shortened week is expected to be a crucial one for Indian equity markets as it marks the start of Q4 earning season, which would formally commence with the earnings of IT bellwether, Infosys on April 15, 2014. With the onset of earning season, besides Infosys, traders would also be eyeing results of Indusind Bank, TCS, HCL Technologies, Wipro and Reliance Industries. Investors and analysts will closely watch the management commentary that would accompany the results to see if there is any revision in their future earnings forecast of the company for the year ending 31 March 2015 (FY 2015) and/or for the year ending 31 March 2016 (FY 2016). Indian companies will start reporting their Q4 and full year results from 15 April 2014. The result season will conclude in end-May 2014. Market-participants would also be eyeing the release of Consumer price index (CPI) data, scheduled to be released on April 15, which is expected to have edged up slightly in March due to higher food prices. However, before that Dalal Street is expected to react to IIP data, released after market hours on Friday, April 11.Besides, headline inflation data. i.e., Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data also is scheduled to be released on the same day.Additionally, CPI for Agricultural Labourers/ Rural Labourers also will be watched out on April 17, 2014. On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world's largest economy, United States (US), starting from Retail Sales data on April 14, followed by Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Jobless Claims and finally, the Philadelphia Fed Survey data on April 17. On the macro front, industrial production growth is seen inching up to 0.9% in February 2014, from 0.1% in January 2014, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. The government unveils industrial production data for February 2014 at 17:30 IST on Friday, 11 April 2014. The rate of inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) is seen edging up to 5.3% in March 2014, from 4.7% in February 2014, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. The government is scheduled to announce WPI inflation data for March 2014 at 12 noon on Tuesday, 15 April 2014. The rate of inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) is seen inching up to 8.2% in March 2014, from 8.1% in February 2014, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. The government is scheduled to announce CPI inflation data for March 2014 at 17:00 IST on Tuesday, 15 April 2014. A major near term trigger for the stock market is the outcome of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The 36 days long voting process began on 7 April 2014 and will conclude on 12 May 2014. The results will be declared on 16 May 2014 after which India will get a new government. The term of the current Lok Sabha expires on 1 June 2014 and the new House has to be constituted by 31 May 2014. On the global front, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next undertakes monetary policy review at a two-day meeting on 29- 30 April 2014. The Federal Reserve on 19 March 2014 decided after the conclusion of a monetary policy review to trim its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion to $55 billion. Fed's bond-buying program has been a source of liquidity for most Asian and emerging markets over the past few years.
TECHNICAL LEVELS AND MAJOR EVENTS TO WATCH OUT FOR NEXT WEEK
WEEKLY TECHNICAL LEVELS-INDICES-EQUITY
NIFTY- PIVOT POINT 6749
MAJOR SUPPORT 6678 6580 6509
MAJOR RESISITANCE 6847 6917 7015
SENSEX-PIVOT POINT 22540
MAJOR SUPPORT 22287 21945 21692
MAJOR RESISTANCE 22882 23135 23477
MAJOR EVENTS FOR THE NEXT WEEK
14th APRIL MKT CLOSED DUE TO AMBEDKAR JAYANTI, US RETAIL SALES DATA.
15th APRIL Q4 RESULTS SEASON STRARTS WITH INFOSYS & OTHERS, CPI data, WPI & Inflation rate for March.
16th APRIL US HSG STARTS & IIP DATA
17th APRIL US JOBLESS CLAIMS
18th APRIL MKT CLOSED DUE TO GOOD FRIDAY
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