Outlook of nifty from 30/09/2013 to 04/10/2013

CMP	5833.20
Nifty Range	5655 to 6012
Pivot Point	5878
Turning Points	5792/5965
Positive Above	5882
Negative Below	5784
Bull Turning Point	5931
Bear Turning Point	5735

Nifty has closed (5833.20) below Weekly Pivot Point (5878).

Nifty has immediate Resistance at 5850 and then at 5862. Nifty must cross 5879 and stay above 5898 on Closing Basis to continue its Up-move. If Nifty manages to cross and decisively close above 5915, it may go up to 5934 – 5956. Above 5969, Nifty will enter into Bull Zone and may move up to 5982 – 6001 - 6020. Further Up-move Levels will be 6042 – 6063.

Nifty has immediate Support at 5824 and then at 5810. If Nifty breaches 5795, it may go down to 5781 – 5769. Nifty will get weak below 5757 and may go down to 5748 – 5736. Below 5724, Nifty will enter into Bear Zone and may go down to 5712 – 5700 – 5686 - 5674. Further Down-move Levels will be 5662 – 5645 – 5630 – 5616.

Moving Averages

Average	20 Days	50 Days	100 Days	200 Days
SMA	5784	5714	5815	5841
EMA	5805	5752	5769	5752

General Out-Look

Nifty Trend looks to be Sideways. Global Cues are Mixed. Nifty may continue its Upmove if it manages to HOLD above 5879 on Closing Basis, crosses 5898 and stays above 5915. The Upmove will be up to 5934 – 5956 – 5969. On the other hand if it HOLDS below 5795, breaches 5781 and trades below 5769, it is likely to be dragged down to 5757 – 5748 – 5736 – 5724.  

Fresh Strength will be seen only above 5850 and 5866. If Nifty manages to stay above 5866, next Upmove Levels will be 5882 - 5931 and then 5970 - 6012.

Below 5817, Nifty could slip down to 5801 – 5784. If 5784 is breached, break-down to 5735 – 5692 – 5655 is likely to be seen.

Factors of Concern/Major Events

1. This Week has 4 Working Days. Wednesday, 2-10-13 will be Holiday on account of Gandhi Jayanti.

2. Domestic and Global News/Cues (Especially from European and U.S. Markets).

3. Status of Rupee versus Dollar.

4. FOMC Meeting on 28/29^th October 13

5. RBI Monetary Policy Review on 29^th October 13.

6. News floating around as regards to QE-3 tapering, GAAR and further hike in Interest Rates by RBI, in view of untamed Inflation.

7. Corporate Results to commence and Infosys Result on 11-10-13.